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Showing posts with label American Entreprise Institute. Show all posts
Showing posts with label American Entreprise Institute. Show all posts

2/25/16

Let’s get inside the black box of pre-K

Last week, I moderated a fascinating panel discussion on the strengths and weaknesses of research on pre-K. (You can see a video of the event here.) A great panel — including Tim Bartik, Dale Farran, Bill Gormley, and Russ Whitehurst — disagreed on much: the quality of pre-K research, the strength of the current evidence base on pre-K, and whether that evidence base supports large-scale expansion of public pre-K as an effective strategy for advancing the well-being of America’s most vulnerable children.

Yet despite some sharp differences, a significant area of agreement emerged. While we know that quality is the key to pre-K effectiveness, we know too little about what quality actually is and what drives it. That is, we know that pre-K can work, but not enough about what makes it work and how.

Twenty20.

Twenty20.

In fact, our thinking about pre-K quality is often a kind of circular reasoning. We describe pre-K as “high quality” when it produces results — and “producing results” is how high quality pre-K is defined in the first place. But what causes quality, how to measure it, and how to ensure it have largely remained a “black box.” Panelists agreed that a crucial task for research is to get inside that black box: to build knowledge on what specific program inputs and practices are linked to children’s outcomes and, equally important, how to implement those inputs and practices effectively at scale.

At the same time, while high quality pre-K is defined as pre-K that produces results, panelists agreed, too, that we have inadequate knowledge about what results are most important and how to measure those. Children’s early acquisition of two kinds of skills is understood to be important to their long term success in school and life: cognitive skills (like the capacity to learn, remember, reason, solve problems) and noncognitive skills (like motivation, persistence, self-control, the ability to pay attention, and social competence). A growing body of research suggests that that noncognitive, or “character” skills may actually be the strongest determinant of later success. But researchers don’t know which early skills have the strongest links to long term success, or how to measure those.

In fact, most child outcomes reported in contemporary pre-K studies are neither cognitive nor noncognitive skills, but rather children’s scores on tests of basic academic knowledge like identifying letters of the alphabet, recognizing vocabulary words, and counting small numbers. Those test scores are considered to be a proxy for other, more important skills like being able to solve problems and being motivated to learn — skills which are harder for researchers to measure. But the panelists agreed that a much better understanding of what skills are fundamental to children’s success, how to teach those skills, and how to measure whether children have acquired them is also a crucial area of future research.

So “does pre-K work”? Some researchers say yes and some say no. (We’re releasing an in-depth report on the topic on March 22.) But our panel identified some important common ground: an essential aspect of the early childhood research agenda going forward is to figure out what “work” really means and how to make it happen.



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10 questions for Obama’s nominee for Secretary of Education

The Senate will hold a confirmation hearing this afternoon to determine whether or not John King will become the next Secretary of Education.  Director of Education Policy Studies Rick Hess identifies 10 questions the Senate should ask of King at today’s hearing on important policy issues, including:

1. ESSA: On his way out of office, former secretary Duncan suggested that the Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA) does not reduce the department’s authority in the manner that Democrats and Republicans intended, because, as he told reporters, “candidly, our lawyers are much smarter than many of the folks who were working on this bill.” Do you agree with Duncan that creative lawyering will or should allow the secretary to disregard portions of the statute in implementing the law?

2. COMMON CORE: The Obama administration has long championed the Common Core. ESSA stipulates that “the Secretary shall not attempt to influence, incentivize, or coerce State adoption of the Common Core State Standards . . . or any other academic standards common to a significant number of States, or assessments tied to such standards.” Given that you have been an outspoken advocate for the Common Core in New York and here in Washington, can you give us your pledge that you will respect the spirit as well as the letter of that prohibition?

3. VOUCHERS: In 2008, candidate Obama said of Milwaukee’s school voucher program: “Let’s see if it works. . . . If it does, whatever my preconceptions, you do what’s best for the kids.” Yet the administration has aggressively sought to put an end to the federally funded model voucher program in Washington, D.C. Perhaps the president is just confused. In 2014, he explained: “Every study that’s been done on school vouchers . . . says that it has very limited impact, if any.” In fact, the evaluation of the D.C. program for the federal Institute of Education Sciences found that the program “significantly improved students’ chances of graduating from high school.” Given the findings, and your own impressive record in charter schools, will you work to remind the president of his earlier pledge, to explain the evidence to him, and to reverse administration hostility to the D.C. Opportunity Scholarship program?

Read the full piece: Ten questions the Senate should ask Obama’s nominee for Secretary of Education.

To schedule an interview with Rick Hess, or another AEI education scholar, please contact AEI Media Services at mediaservices@aei.org or 202-862-5829.



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Real and permanent minimum wages

Abstract:

We study heterogeneity in minimum wage policy design and in the employment effects of minimum wage increases. Specifically, we study whether indexing minimum wages to inflation and differences in county-level wages and mobility rates lead to heterogenous employment effects following minimum wage increases. We find evidence that they do. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to empirically study inflation indexing. Our preferred specifications imply that the disemployment effect of indexing minimum wages to inflation is over 2.5 times the magnitude of the disemployment effect associated with nominal minimum wage increases. We also find variance in the effect of minimum wage increases on employment across low- and high-wage counties — employment in low-wage counties is considerably more sensitive to minimum wage increases than employment in high-wage counties. And we provide preliminary evidence that less mobile counties have larger disemployment effects from minimum wage increases than higher mobility counties.

Read the PDF.


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Real and permanent minimum wages



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Iran’s elections: A test of Obama’s nuclear deal

Will President Obama’s gamble that the Iranian nuclear deal will make the Middle East safer pay off? Elections will be a key test, and the first ones — the Iranian elections — start Friday.

One of Obama’s responses to critics who said the United States gave up too much to achieve the Iranian nuclear deal was that it could allow Iran to “fully rejoin the community of nations.” But will it? If projections for Iranian national elections are any indication, the answer may be no.

On February 26, Iranian voters will elect new members to both its Parliament and the Assembly of Experts — a deliberative body made up of 88 theologians. The problems start with the fact that the regime disqualified roughly half of the candidates who applied to run in the parliamentary elections, and reformist candidates were strongly represented among the disqualifications.

Editor’s note: This piece originally appeared on CNN.com. The full article is available here.



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‘The establishment’ my foot

I was sitting in a room with a small group of colleagues, representing a few think tanks in town, talking about the new defense budget, needed changes, and the declining reach of the US military. It was a good, smart, bipartisan conversation. But then our host sighed, and noted that it didn’t matter what we would come together to say, because we are “the establishment” and no one will listen. I called BS, and now I want to call BS on every single candidate who paints themselves as an outsider and an enemy of “the establishment.”

Here’s the deal. Of course there are Washington creatures and beltway insiders and fixers and institutions that feed at the trough of big government. But actually living in DC doesn’t qualify anyone as a member of “the establishment.” Washington is full of decent people fighting to make the country a better place, not for themselves, but for their fellow Americans. And guess what? You can’t change Washington from Dubuque or LA. The Tea Party was about throwing out one group of DC denizens and sending another here. Yes, here. Marco Rubio was a Tea Party candidate who took on the hand-picked princes of the GOP and won. Now he’s part of “the establishment”? Even Barack Obama, who gets few points from me on domestic or foreign policy, is no elitist scion of the Democratic aristocracy.

Twenty20,

Twenty20,

Meanwhile, Donald Trump — a guy who goes to Wharton, inherits tens of millions from his father, and donates to politicians on both sides of the aisle to grease his deals — is the anti-establishment outsider? Or Ted Cruz — who went to Princeton, Harvard Law, clerked for a Supreme Court Justice, worked for a boutique law firm, and was a political appointee at the Federal Trade Commission?

If they are anti-establishment, then the words have no meaning.

Bottom line:

  • Serving constituents in our democracy doesn’t make members of the House of Representatives or Senate “the establishment.” Kudos for braving the gauntlet of press and voters to stand for something.
  • Bipartisanship doesn’t make any one of us a member of “the establishment.” The problem with Washington is things don’t get done. Reaching across the aisle is a virtue, not a vice.
  • Working at a think tank and generating new ideas for better governance doesn’t make anyone part of “the establishment.” My colleagues and I on the left and the right are working every day to help our leaders do the right thing.
  • Writing for a national newspaper doesn’t make successful journalists “the establishment.” They’re at the pinnacle of their fields, and we love success in America.
  • Heading to work every day at the Department of Health and Human Services or Interior or State doesn’t make those people part of “the establishment.” Is government too big? Yes, but that’s the fault of our leaders, not the people who are serving their nation.

Seriously, when did we become a country that thinks service, success, respect and courtesy doomed a man to dismissal by the hordes as a member of “the establishment”? Since when did we become a country that exudes contempt for our neighbors? For our friends? Since when did we become a country that despises the honest toil of hardworking Americans, even those in our nation’s capital?

Is there an “establishment”? Yes. The Bushes and the Clintons are there. So are Trump and Cruz. But few of the other candidates are, and it’s time someone smacked down this ridiculous meme.

H/T to Marc Thiessen, who helped me veer out of my lane for this post.



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What happens when college is free? The results are underwhelming

As “free college for all” advocates like Bernie Sanders point out, college in the US used to be free (New York and California) or very low cost in many states. Then again, not many people went to college, so states could afford to charge little or zippo.

But enrollments surged after World War II. The Wall Street Journal points out that 2.2 million students attended public colleges nationally in 1959 when Sanders studied at Brooklyn College vs. 15.3 million today. Financial pressures eventually forced states to charge tuition or raise it from relatively nominal amounts.

UC Berkeley. Flickr.

UC Berkeley. Flickr.

In the WSJ piece. a Pennsylvania State University education professor argues that returning to free tuition would “explode enrollment at state schools that are already having trouble handling current enrollment” and “weak liberal arts colleges would be forced out of business by low-cost competition and elite ones would depend even more on wealthier students who could afford to pay tuition.”

This syncs with what AEI’s Andrew Kelly wrote recently: “A national push for tuition-free college would strain public budgets even further, leading to shortages rather than increased access. And because middle and upper-income students will gobble up many of the free public slots, rationing will hurt those who need access the most.”

But there is, I think, an even more important point: Do results matter? Do countries with free or low tuition show superior results when it comes to college access, completion, and attainment? Kelly’s analysis finds it’s “a mixed bag” and free or supercheap college hardly a panacea. For instance: The US’s 47% enrollment rate is lower than Denmark’s 56% but about the same as rates in Germany, Austria, and Iceland, and above Sweden and Finland. Overall, the US is tied for 12 out of 18 advanced economies with available data, though it does better when it comes to graduation and attainment.

Then there’s the case of Scotland, which in 2007 scrapped a $5000 post-graduation fee that all students paid. Yearly tuition had already been done way with. The Economist tells us what happened next:

Yet the abolition of fees has done surprisingly little to widen access to higher education. Indeed, since 2011 the proportion of students from state schools entering Scotland’s elite universities has fallen. And while the proportion of university students from non-professional backgrounds has risen by just 0.2 percentage points, to 26.8%, in England it has gone up from 30.9% to 33.1%. … And it seems likely that attempts to widen access will again be constrained by Scottish universities’ limited sources of income. Abolishing tuition fees may have been a political achievement, but it is proving to be a pricey policy. Nor is it as popular as it once was. In 2013 two-thirds of Scots said that students with the money to do so should contribute to the cost of their tuition.

Finally, “free college” does nothing to increase accountability and nudge colleges to provide more value to students. It sort of lets schools off the hook. Kelly: “Transferring costs away from students onto taxpayers would lower tuition prices while allowing schools to continue operating under their current wasteful cost structures. An influx of new funding might actually lead them to pay less attention to cost-effectiveness than they do now.” No wonder Sanders is so popular among education elites.

Anyway, here are some blog posts by me looking at better ways to pursue higher-ed reform:

How much will ‘free college’ cost? New study suggests colleges respond to more financial aid by increasing tuition

The anti-economics of ‘free’ college

More on the ‘free college’ and upward mobility

The 2 mistaken ideas at the heart of the push for ‘free’ college

Why ‘free college’ lets colleges off the hook

4 higher-ed reforms to encourage colleges to compete on price and value

 



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What’s holding back the supply of innovative, consumer-friendly medical services?

Healthcare policy debates in the United States are dominated by discussions of health insurance coverage and the terms under which consumers enroll in these plans. That’s understandable, because health insurance can be crucial for securing access to lifesaving medical care.

But most Americans do not care all that much about their health insurance. Few people are wedded to the health insurance company processing their medical bills. What they care about is ready access to their preferred physicians and high-quality medical care at affordable prices. Health insurance is just a means to that end.

Unfortunately, policymakers’ heavy emphasis on expanding insurance enrollment has distorted the marketplace. Expansive third-party insurance has displaced the role of the consumer, weakening incentives for the supply side—that is, physicians and the clinics and hospitals they work in—to find new and innovative ways to give patients the high-quality, low-cost, and consumer-friendly care they want and deserve.

Expansive, Government-Subsidized Third-Party Insurance

The quality of medical care and services in the United States has much to commend it. The country has highly trained physicians and a network of sophisticated clinics and inpatient institutions that is unrivaled. Moreover, the United States is home to a vibrant biological and pharmaceutical product industry.

And yet, despite these strengths, there is plenty of reason to worry that the provision of health services to the US population is far from what it could and should be. Many studies have demonstrated the uneven quality of care provided by US clinicians. The consumer experience can be maddening, with piles of meaningless paperwork, endless bureaucracy, duplicative tests, poor communication and fragmentation among physicians, and generally lousy service. The technology revolution, which has swept through and upended most service industries, has barely made a dent in the manner by which medical services are provided to patients, which looks today pretty much as it did a few decades ago.

In a functioning marketplace, the suppliers of products and services strive to innovate and provide high-quality services to their customers because that is the way to stimulate demand and achieve higher profits. A company only does well if it is able to convince a sizeable number of consumers that what it is offering is worth whatever amount the consumer must pay to get it.

But the health sector is different from the rest of the US economy because the consumption side of the marketplace is dominated by third-party insurance payments. Consumers pay very little directly to the suppliers of medical services. Instead, third-party insurance pays the vast majority of the medical bills on patients’ behalf.

This is by design. In 2012, there were about 242 million Americans under the age of 65 who were enrolled in health insurance, and 92 percent of them were in plans subsidized by the federal government. There were 156 million people enrolled in employer-sponsored insurance plans. Employer-paid premiums are excluded from workers’ taxable compensation for purposes of both the income and payroll tax. Over time, this tax break has encouraged employers to substitute expansive health insurance coverage for higher wages. Beyond job-based coverage, another 66 million people were enrolled in Medicare, Medicaid, or the military health insurance system. In each of these insurance systems, the consumers pay very little at the point of the service.

The diminished role of the consumer is evident in national statistics. As shown in figure 1, in 1960, consumer out-of-pocket spending for medical care accounted for nearly 48 percent of all spending on health in United States. By 2000, the percentage of national health expenditures paid for directly out of the pockets of consumers was down to under 15 percent, and in 2010 it was just 11.6 percent.

The displacement of the consumer has had consequences. The terms by which physicians deliver services to patients are now dictated much more by the fine points in their contracts with employers and insurance companies than by any quality commitments they make to their patients.

Figure 1. Out-of-Pocket Spending by Consumers as a Percentage of Total National Health Expenditures

Source: Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, “National Health Expenditures” (historical tables)

Medicare’s Dominant Regulatory Architecture 

Medicare plays a particularly dominant role in setting the terms under which the vast array of providers of medical services must operate.

Since the program was enacted in 1965, the Medicare bureaucracy has erected a vast web of payment rules and regulatory requirements that permeate the entire health sector. Physicians, hospitals, nursing homes, hospices, outpatient clinics, labs, device manufacturers, and every other supplier of clinical services must contend with the methods by which Medicare approves and pays for services. Because so much medical care is directed toward the elderly and disabled, it is not possible for most practitioners to simply ignore Medicare’s rules and go their own way; the revenue Medicare provides is necessary to sustain most aspects of the medical services industry, and therefore the government has substantial leverage to dictate the terms under which it makes payments.

Moreover, Medicare’s influence extends well beyond just those supplying services to the program’s enrollees. Private insurers piggyback on Medicare’s payment framework to compensate physicians and hospitals. According to a 2006 American Medical Association survey, some 75 percent of private insurance companies used the Medicare physician fee schedule as the basis for paying doctors in at least one of their product lines. Similarly, the vast majority of private insurers use Medicare’s diagnosis-related group payment structure to make payments to hospitals for inpatient services.

The extensive use of Medicare’s regulations for paying for medical services and products is a major impediment to innovation and customer-focused service delivery in the health sector. Physicians and other entrepreneurs who seek to provide new and better methods of taking care of patients, perhaps using information technology, are immediately faced with the question of whether or not Medicare will pay for what they are planning to offer.

Bringing a new approach to the marketplace is therefore less about selling the idea to consumers and more a matter of of convincing the Medicare bureaucracy that what is being proposed is worthy of reimbursement. Unfortunately, it is always easier and less risky for the bureaucracy to delay changes rather than approve them. Thus, there is a strong, inherent bias in US health care in favor of incumbents and their way of doing business and against new entrants and innovation in patient care.

Breaking Out of the Old Way of Doing Business

Information technology and medical discovery have the power to transform medical care in the United States for the better. Consumers want convenient, personalized medical attention that is forward-looking and proactive based on their medical profiles and not simply reactive when problems occur. They also want to track their medical records more carefully so that they can take more responsibility for improving their overall health.

All of this is possible, but it will require adjustments to current arrangements to allow consumers and suppliers of medical services to come together to pursue new ways of providing services.

The Supply Side

Suppliers of medical care need the freedom to develop entirely new ways of taking care of patients. Providing the space for new innovations to develop will require a concerted effort across federal and state regulatory agencies.

  • The federal bureaucracy regulating the Medicare program must become open to allowing innovative care delivery arrangements. One way to do that would be to set up an expedited approval process for innovative services, along with a separate cost-sharing structure for the beneficiaries. Under this structure, physicians and others could come forward with new ways of taking care of their patients and then receive approval for their approaches if they are able to get consumers to pay for part of the bill. Medicare should calculate what it would pay if the services were provided in a more traditional manner; any expense above that should be covered by the Medicare enrollee.
  • State licensing boards should allow accountable organizations to take responsibility for assigning clinical tasks across practitioners rather than trying to micromanage those decisions with arbitrary state rules. This change would allow organizations such as retailers and national pharmacies to be more aggressive in using convenient care models, supervised by physicians, to take care of patients through technology and nontraditional care sites. Moving more care to less expensive, nonmedical settings has the potential to generate substantial cost reductions.

The Consumer Side

Innovation among suppliers of medical care will accelerate when they are able to deal directly with more consumers rather than insurers and the government. The key to empowering consumers is more widespread use of health savings accounts (HSAs). HSAs provide financial protection for enrollees even as they encourage consumers to aggressively seek out high-value, low-cost care when spending their own resources. The accounts are owned by the enrollees, so they have a strong incentive to use their resources only on services that they find truly valuable. The number of Americans enrolled in these arrangements has increased rapidly in recent years, from 3.2 million in January 2006 to 17.4 million in January 2014. But still more enrollment in these plans will be needed to provide enough of a consumer-driven marketplace to drive innovation and adaptation by clinicians and suppliers of medical care. That can be accomplished with reforms to a number of existing policies.

  • Create a universal HSA allowance. Currently, only persons with high-deductible health plans can contribute to an HSA each year. There is no reason why persons with lower deductibles also should not be allowed to make a contribution each year to prepare for the future and to give themselves more protection and flexibility. Giving all Americans the ability to contribute $2,000 per year would go a long way toward increasing take-up and use of HSAs.
  • Integrate HSAs into public insurance. With a few exceptions, HSAs are not a major feature of the Medicare and Medicaid programs. That should change. Participants in those programs should be allowed to take their entitlement to coverage in the form of a high-deductible insurance plan and a deposit of leftover funds in their HSAs. This would ensure HSAs could be used throughout a person’s life, and not just during years when they are employed.
  • HSA withdrawals are presumed to take place within a fee-for-service context. Withdrawals are only allowed to reimburse the account holder for paying directly for qualified medical services or products. This requirement hinders the development of alternative payment approaches that would work better for the enrollees and for the integrated delivery plans and other direct-pay physician relationships that require payment methods other than FFS. For instance, HSA enrollees should be allowed to use their funds to purchase a predetermined level of access to care from an integrated health plan, or from a specific physician or other provider, for a monthly fee. An HSA enrollee could make payments directly to his or her primary care physician under a direct-pay arrangement, independent of insurance or any network requirement. The fee could cover a certain number of physician visits, phone consultations, online health support, and other services to help enrollees meet their routine health and wellness management needs.

Conclusion

Advances in information technology and knowledge of human health have the potential to revolutionize the way medical care is delivered to patients over the coming decade. Americans could get better health care, at less cost, if those delivering services to patients have the freedom to take full advantage of what these advances make possible.

For that to happen, however, US health care will need to move steadily away from the bureaucratic model of resource allocation. Consumers must be given the power to steer a much larger slice of the healthcare pie, and suppliers of services must be given the freedom to meet consumer demand with products that improve the convenience, efficiency, and effectiveness of medical care in maintaining and improving the ability of patients to live fully functioning lives.



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RELEASE: A New Look at How Demographic Shifts in Race, Age, and Generation Could Affect Future Election Outcomes (from 2016 to 2032)

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 25, 2016
CONTACT: mediaservices@aei.org, 202.862.5829

Washington, D.C. (February 25) — A new report, “America’s Electoral Future: How Changing Demographics Could Impact Presidential Elections from 2016 to 2032,″ by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), the Brookings Institution, and the Center for American Progress, examines how demographic shifts by race, age, and generation could affect election outcomes from 2016 to 2032. The authors conclude that while the effect is likely to be significant, neither party can be assured of long-term dominance simply because of shifting demographics.

Using projections from the AEI/Brookings/CAP States of Change project, these findings were produced by conducting a series of simulations using a variety of different scenarios. The six scenarios assume different voter turnout rates and different political support.

In addition to this report, six papers on the policy implications of the demographic changes on family, on the economy and workforce, and on the social contract are also being released. Each policy area has two papers from different political perspectives: Jared Bernstein of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and Henry Olsen of the Ethics & Public Policy Center discuss the significance of the changes on the workforce; Naomi Cahn of the George Washington University Law School, June Carbone of the University of Minnesota Law School, Howard Lavine of the University of Minnesota, and David Blankenhorn of the Institute for American Values discuss the impact of the changes on the family (family structure and educational attainment, for example); and William Galston of the Brookings Institution and Reihan Salam of the National Review Institute examine the effect of the changes on the social contract (for example, the possible conflict of interest over the financing and extent of social programs between an aging white population and a more diverse workforce).

Both the simulations report and policy papers will be presented today during the States of Change conference held at AEI. Livestream of the event can be accessed here.

“In election years, candidates, issues, and the voters’ mood always matter. But demographic change is centrally important, too, and the States of Change project has been examining how it will affect elections going forward and policy choices the nation will have to make,” said Karlyn Bowman, senior fellow and research coordinator at the American Enterprise Institute. “The AEI, Brookings, and CAP collaboration provides an excellent foundation for these discussion.”

“Changing demographics across the 50 states will have a huge impact on the results of the 2016 election and beyond,” said William H. Frey, senior fellow at Brookings Institution and a coauthor of the report. “Unlike in the primaries, both parties will need to come to grips with a more racially diverse nation in order to capture the White House in the general election. These projections will give Republicans and Democrats a valuable tool for assessing the future.”

“Demographics may not be destiny, but they do play a significant role in shaping the future,” said Ruy Teixeira, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and coauthor of the report. “An older and more racially diverse voter population will reshape the American political landscape and both Democrats and Republicans will need to grapple with that reality.”

For more information about the States of Change project, click here. To speak with one of the experts, please contact Meg Cahill at meg.cahill@aei.org.

###

AEI is a nonprofit, nonpartisan public policy research organization that works to expand liberty, increase individual opportunity, and strengthen free enterprise.

The Brookings Institution is a nonprofit organization devoted to independent research and policy solutions. Its mission is to conduct high-quality, independent research and, based on that research, to provide innovative, practical recommendations for policymakers and the public.

The Center for American Progress is a nonpartisan research and educational institute dedicated to promoting a strong, just and free America that ensures opportunity for all. We believe that Americans are bound together by a common commitment to these values and we aspire to ensure that our national policies reflect these values. We work to find progressive and pragmatic solutions to significant domestic and international problems and develop policy proposals that foster a government that is “of the people, by the people, and for the people.”



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States of Change — election oracle



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America’s electoral future: How changing demographics could impact presidential elections from 2016 to 2032

Download the PDF

Results from the past two presidential elections provide evidence that the changing demography of the electorate—with its increased racial diversity—can affect election outcomes in ways that could not have been anticipated even a decade ago. A solid case can be made that the nation’s racial minority populations put President Barack Obama over the top in both 2008 and 2012. But racial diversity is not the only demographic change that may have an effect on future presidential elections. In addition to greater diversity—which is primarily affecting the younger part of the electorate—the older part of the voting population is growing more rapidly as the huge Baby Boom generation ages.

These demographic shifts—toward both a more racially diverse younger electorate and a larger older electorate—certainly should change the playing field in terms of how the Democratic and Republican parties, as well as their candidates, appeal to these shifting voting blocs, which often have different interests. And the pace of demographic change varies across geography, with some fast-growing states such as Arizona, Texas, and Florida seeing the effects of the nation’s rising diversity much more sharply than others. Yet even slow growing states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan will experience significant rising diversity in the coming years and, importantly, an aging of their electorates driven by large contingents of Baby Boom residents. These state-level demographic changes will leave strong imprints on the voting populations captured by the all-important Electoral College, forcing parties and candidates to recalibrate their strategies for success.

This report explores how these demographic changes could shape the electorate, as well as potential outcomes in the next five presidential elections using national and state demographic projections produced by the States of Change project. In a 2015 report and interactive, this project presented a time series of long-term projections of race and age profiles for the populations and eligible electorates of all 50 states to 2060. This report focuses on what those projections imply for the presidential elections of 2016, 2020, 2024, 2028, and 2032.

Of course, shaping these outcomes is not the same as determining them. While the force of demography is important, election results also depend on economic conditions, candidates, and the extent to which those candidates are able to generate enthusiasm that can be measured in voter turnout and candidate preference. The analyses presented here build alternative scenarios for the election years mentioned above. Each scenario assumes the same projected demography of eligible voters, or EVs, for that year but makes different assumptions about voter turnout and candidate preference.

This report considers six main scenarios. Scenario A, here called the 2012 Forward scenario, assumes that for each age, race, and state group, voter turnout rates and Democratic/Republican candidate preferences in 2012 will continue for EV populations that are projected into the future. Scenario B, the 2008 Forward scenario, assumes that the even more Democrat-favorable turnout and candidate preference rates by age, race, and state group of the 2008 election will apply to future EV populations. Scenario C, the 2004 Forward scenario, assumes that the relatively Republican-favorable 2004 turnout rates and candidate preferences by age, race, and state will obtain among future EVs.

Scenario D is the Maximum Minority Turnout scenario. Like scenario A, it assumes that the candidate preferences of voters will follow those of 2012. But unlike A, it assumes that the turnout of Hispanics, Asians, and other races by age rises to the turnout level of whites by age in every state. African American turnout is not adjusted since it was slightly higher than white turnout in 2012. This simulation shows the likely outcomes that would result if the efforts to encourage the turnout of newer minorities—Hispanics, Asians, and other nonblack minorities—are extremely successful.

Scenarios E and F adjust scenario A to assume greater Republican voter preferences for different groups. Scenario E, the High GOP Hispanic/Asian Support scenario, assumes that Republican support from voters of each nonblack or new minority group—Hispanics, Asians, and those of other races—will increase by 7.5 percentage points for all age categories of those groups in every state. Note that raising the support rate for Republicans by 7.5 points among new minorities reduces the Democrats’ support rate among these groups by the same amount, thereby improving the margin for Republicans by 15 points in total.

Scenario F, the More GOP White Support scenario, changes the voting preferences of the white electorate, adjusting scenario A in order to increase the level of Republican support from white voters of all age categories in every state by 5 points—thereby raising the GOP margin among all categories of white voters by 10 points.

Notably, these are simulations—not predictions. For example, when running the 2016 election simulation as if voter turnout and preferences were the same as in 2012—scenario A—the authors are not expressing the belief that this is a likely event. e goal of this report is to display the potential political effects of demographic change. As such, the results this report presents offer a range of outcomes that can be expected under different assumptions as the nation’s demography changes, but they are not predictions about actual future events.



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States of Change: Policy implications of demographic change

The States of Change: Demographics and Democracy project is a collaboration of AEI, the Brookings Institution, and the Center for American Progress. The project began in 2014 and has been generously funded by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation. In year one, States of Change examined the changing demography of the nation and projected the racial and ethnic composition of every state to 2060. The detailed findings were discussed at the project’s February 2015 conference.

Access the States of Change project and interactive map

In year two, the project’s leaders commissioned six papers on the policy implications of the demographic changes, two each from different political perspectives on the significance of the changes for the family, for the economy and workforce, and for the social contract. Their discussions include public policy responses to topics such as strong correlations between family structure, educational attainment, and race and possible conflicts of interest between an aging white population and a more diverse workforce over the financing and extent of social programs. Each of the papers is available at the links below.

Two Perspectives on Demographic Change and the Future of the Workforce

These two papers examine the implications of America’s demographic change for the economy and the potential for either political consensus or political conflict to emerge from these challenges. The first paper titled, “Demographic Change and the Future of the Workforce: Challenges and Opportunities,” is authored by Jared Bernstein of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. The second paper titled, “Demographic Change and Political Conflict,” is authored by Henry Olsen of the Ethics & Public Policy Center.

Two Perspectives on Demographic Change and the Future of the Family

These two papers assess current changes in family structure in America based on race and education and examines these changes in light of America’s future demography. While some policy officials propose greater job stability, higher wages, and increased government support for welfare programs and education benefits to offset the decline of the nuclear family, other policy officials propose more holistic efforts that include, but are not limited to, economic security. These two papers contribute to this discussion. The first paper titled, “A New Look at Demographics, Family Stability, and Poverty” is coauthored by Naomi Cahn of the George Washington University Law School, June Carbone of the University of Minnesota Law School, and Howard Lavine of the University of Minnesota. The second paper titled, “Are We Still Married? Family Structure and Family Policy in the Emerging Age of the Unformed Family,” is authored by David Blankenhorn of the Institute for American Values.

Two Perspectives on Demographic Change and the Future of the Social Contract

These two papers examine in detail the implications of changes in America’s demography by race, age, and education for public policy. How will social programs, such as Medicare and Social Security, be funded as America’s population ages and its younger members are increasingly diverse? Will America be able to assimilate its growing immigrant population into mainstream society, or will income inequality and other social inequalities persist and possibly worsen as America’s population becomes more racially and ethnically diverse? These papers delve deeply into the political and policy implications of these questions. The first paper titled, “Demographic Change and the Future of the American Social Compact,” is authored by William Galston of the Brookings Institution. The second paper titled, “Is the Hardening of Ethnoracial Inequalities Inevitable?,” is authored by Reihan Salam of the National Review Institute.



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Mr. Modi, you’re not in Gujarat anymore

Visitors to the “Make in India” investment summit in Mumbai earlier this month were struck with déjà vu. The warm welcome for businessmen, the soaring speech by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the rash of proposed investment announcements recalled “Vibrant Gujarat,” a similar event Mr. Modi hosted when he was chief minister of Gujarat from 2001 to 2014.

Though wooing business is a fine idea and a welcome change from the country’s recent past, the parallels with Vibrant Gujarat revealed a problem. Nearly two years after taking office, a prime minister famed for his administrative skills has yet to show he can run a federal government. Instead of setting a broad policy agenda and hiring the right people to execute it, he has been focused on micromanaging the day-to-day administration of his country.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s Feb. 29 budget is thus an opportunity to show that this government stands for a market-oriented approach to the economy, rather than an uncertain effort to spur bureaucrats to work more efficiently.

The full-text version of this article may be found in The Wall Street Journal.



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2/24/16

How celebrity trumps the political establishment . . . in 60 seconds

How have Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders defied the odds in the 2016 presidential election? Jonah Goldberg explains why the political establishment has crumbled in the face of celebrity power.

To learn more about the 2016 election, visit AEI’s Political Corner.



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Who tried to give the Social Security trust fund to Wall Street?

On the campaign trail, Hillary Clinton tried to fire up her supporters, saying:

After Bush got reelected in 2004, the first thing he said was, let’s go privatize Social Security. … And you know what, their whole plan was, their plan was to give the Social Security trust fund to Wall Street. Imagine that.

Yes, imagine that.

Now, you can go either way with her claim about President George W. Bush. Yes, President Bush proposed voluntary personal retirement accounts for Social Security. Under the Bush plan, workers could choose to have some of their Social Security payroll taxes contributed to a personal account similar to a 401(k). And those workers could also choose, if they liked, to invest some of those personal account contributions in a broad stock index fund that would be managed by a government entity similar to the Thrift Savings Plan for federal government employees.

Would the trust fund itself have been given to “Wall Street”? No. Would President Bush have forced anyone to give any of their Social Security dollars to “Wall Street”? No. But if you don’t want Social Security funds to have any risk, then you might excuse Mrs. Clinton for her shorthand description of the Bush proposal.

Reuters.

Reuters.

But guess who did want to give the Social Security trust fund to Wall Street, as in having part of the trust fund itself invested in stocks? Oh, what’s his name again? President Bill Clinton! Back in 1999, President Clinton proposed investing about 15% of the Social Security trust fund in the stock market.

If those stock market investments paid off, then Social Security’s solvency would have been extended. If those investments didn’t pay off – and things have been a bit rocky for the stock market over the past 15 years or so – then Social Security’s solvency would have been hurt. And if the trust fund goes insolvent then by law retirees’ benefits get cut.

And guess what? Unlike the Bush plan, there was no room for choosing under the Clinton proposal to invest the trust fund in stocks. Individuals couldn’t opt out and they couldn’t choose to have their money invested in bonds rather than stocks, as they could have under the Bush plan.

Did Hillary oppose Bill’s idea to invest the trust fund in stocks? Does she even remember it?



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Security, privacy, and government access to encrypted data: Perspectives on the Apple controversy

The debate on government access to encrypted data has resurfaced with Apple’s public opposition to a court order to assist the FBI’s investigation of the San Bernardino terror attacks.

The FBI has argued that it requires assistance to unlock an iPhone used by one of the attackers, Syed Farook. Meanwhile, Apple CEO Tim Cook has stated that his company will fight government demands for “backdoors” to its encrypted devices — although there is disagreement as to whether this particular case constitutes a true “backdoor.”

Join AEI for this Google Hangout on how to balance private-sector equities, civil liberties, and national security in the larger encryption debate.

 Join the conversation on social media with #EncryptTalk.

To join the Hangout, click here on February 26 at 1:30 PM ET. Registration is not required.



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The closing of the military mind?

George Washington resigned as commander-in-chief of the Continental Army on December 23, 1783, ending a career that spanned more of his adult life than his combined years in the Continental Congress and as president. Today, just two days after his birthday, I wonder what Washington would think about the role education plays in the development of our military, particularly given our long season of war.

On one hand, Washington would be pleased to know that men and women of the armed forces are among the best and brightest of their generation. According to data from George Washington University, in 2010, 82% of military officers held at least a bachelor’s degree. Ninety-three percent of enlisted soldiers had a high school diploma.

Twenty20.

Twenty20.

Yet while recruiting America’s brightest for the armed forces remains a national priority, there has also been an alarming rise in the number of men and women ineligible for military service in recent years. In 2010, for example, a group of retired military leaders commissioned a report titled Too Fat to Fight. The report found that 75% of Americans age 17 to 24 are unable to join the military because they “failed to graduate high school, have criminal records, or are physically unfit.” In fact, the Army’s Accessions Command has estimated that 9 million men and women could not join the military if they wanted to because they are unable to pass the fitness test.

Things are not much better on the education side of the equation. According to Shut Out of the Military, a national survey of 350,000 high school graduates who took the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) examination between 2004 and 2009, one in five failed to meet the minimum math, science, reading, and problem-solving scores required to enlist in the US Army. Approximately 39% of Black applicants and 29% of Hispanic applicants failed the exam. Some Blacks and Hispanics who passed did so with lower scores, which means they could only qualify for lower-skilled military jobs. This is troubling because these individuals leave the military lacking the opportunity to obtain the types of high-skilled, high-salary civilian occupations that they would otherwise be able to access.

The origins of these problems begin well before applicants arrive at military recruitment stations. According to a 2013 National Center for Health Statistics study, childhood obesity has tripled since 1980. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention reports that 1 out of 5 individuals age 12-19 were obese in 2012.

While negative indicators of children’s health are increasing, their academic achievement within the last 50 years remains mixed. Researchers including Eric Hanushek have analyzed achievement data for 12th graders on the National Assessment of Education Progress (NAEP), known as the “Nation’s Report Card.” Seventeen-year-olds’ scores in math and reading were both virtually unchanged between 1970 and 2012. Although Hanushek’s focus was on the black-white achievement gap since 1965, his conclusion is relevant here: “After nearly a half century of supposed progress … the modest improvements … can only be called a national embarrassment.”

A group of scholars and executives, which included my AEI colleague Rick Hess, reached a similar, though more military-focused conclusion in a report published by the Council on Foreign Relations in 2012: “In short, America’s failure to educate is affecting its national security.” And former US secretary of education Arne Duncan has also expressed concern:

Too many of our high school students are not graduating ready to begin college or a career – and many are not eligible to serve in our armed forces. I am deeply troubled by the national security burden created by America’s underperforming education system.

Our solution to this problem should not be about requiring more high school graduates to enlist in the military. What it should be about is ensuring that those committed to serving our country are able to do so, and that the failures of our public health and education systems are not the reason anyone is held back. Entering the military, just like entering college, is a choice — but it remains an elusive choice if students are underprepared.

Today, we want all students to be college-and-career ready. But why not expand the scope to help prepare interested students to be military ready? Education is not just about academic performance; it is integral for the creation and maintenance of a healthy, productive, and safe society that prepares every student for his or her chosen path—especially if that path is to defend the Constitution of the United States and the people who call America home.

 

Learn more about Education and Civil Society




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Why subsidized jobs are not the answer to young male unemployment

A recent editorial in the New York Times described a troubling trend of joblessness among young men, especially African-American men, in urban areas. According to a report cited in the piece, 30% of black men aged 20-24 in New York City and Los Angeles were not in school and not working in 2014.

While certainly concerning, this is not new. Dr. Ronald Mincy of Columbia University highlighted this issue in his 2006 book, Black Men Left Behind.  He argued that millions of young black men were being left outside the fabrics of American society – work and married life.  He wrote that “nearly half (46.2 percent) of less-educated non-enrolled [in school] young black men reported no earnings in 2001.”

Today, too many young black men still fit this profile. But the New York Times editorial board’s suggestion that subsidized jobs are the answer (like those implemented as part of the American Recovery Act) misreads the evidence and risks shifting focus (and resources) away from proven community-based approaches.

Twenty20.

Twenty20.

In reality, few subsidized jobs programs have shown lasting positive impacts on employment and earnings. Nationally recognized research-firm MDRC studied six subsidized jobs programs in the late 2000s and none were found to increase unsubsidized employment or earnings when compared to a control group. A large federal evaluation of 13 subsidized jobs programs is currently ongoing, but preliminary results are not expected until later this year.

A study by the Economic Mobility Corporation examining 5 subsidized jobs programs was cited by the New York Times as evidence that these programs work. Impacts were only studied for one program in Florida because it was the only site that offered a comparison group of non-participants. They found small, but significant gains in employment and earnings for those who worked in a subsidized job compared to those who were eligible for the program but did not find a subsidized job.

The study has problems that may overstate the results (for example, the group who got hired into a subsidized job was compared to a group who did not get hired, suggesting the hired group was more advantaged). But even if the results are true, they do not suggest that subsidized jobs are the answer for young disconnected men.

The Florida program, as with other programs that show positive results, served job-ready and mostly job-experienced people, which many inner-city young men are not. The vast majority of participants in the Florida program (94%) had at least a high school diploma, and they had to be hired into the subsidized job by a private employer, suggesting that they could at least get through an interview.

Instead of subsidized jobs, a better approach is to help these young men become employable.

In a study of subsidized jobs that I was involved with at the New York City Department of Social Services in 2013, we found that less than half of people assigned to a group eligible for subsidized jobs actually got hired by a private employer, even though plenty of subsidized jobs were available. It became clear that even at no cost to an employer, many people were unemployable.

Instead of subsidized jobs, a better approach is to help these young men become employable. That means teaching them workplace norms and soft skills. The Center for Urban Families in Baltimore, led by Joseph Jones, offers a proven approach. Operating for 15 years, the Center for Urban Families’ mission is “to strengthen urban communities by helping fathers and families achieve stability and economic success.” Responsible fatherhood programs, workforce development, and support services are provided to help disconnected men enter the labor market, sustain employment, and become responsible fathers. (A nice profile was published by CNN in 2013)

Encouraging Congress to pass a large and expensive subsidized jobs program is an overly simplistic answer to a very complex problem, which evidence suggests likely won’t have much impact. Instead, Congress should find ways to support community-based efforts that help young disconnected men value legitimate employment, as well as teach them the skills they need to be good employees. Unlike a short-lived subsidized job, building these basic skills will better help young men contribute to themselves, their families, and their communities.

 



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After Syngenta, what’s next for China Inc.?

State-owned ChemChina’s $43 billion bid for Swiss agriculture firm Syngenta is an order of magnitude larger than anything China has attempted to now. If completed, it would be as large as the country’s next four largest investments combined and roughly half the size of total Chinese outward investment as recently as 2012.

The track record for Chinese investment record to date shows the deal could well be altered by various national regulators. But a $35-$40 billion acquisition of most of Syngenta seems likely to remain. This would put an entirely new range of high-profile assets within China’s sights. Is the world ready?

ChemChina Challenges

Syngenta has operations in more than 90 countries – dozens of regulatory bodies will have queries about the transparency and timing of the ChemChina takeover. Because this is a Chinese acquisition with technology involved, the first one that comes to mind is the Committee On Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS).

CFIUS could very well decide it does not want ChemChina in control of one or more of Syngenta’s US assets. However, it seems unlikely that CFIUS would carve out most or all of the American assets and highly unlikely that CFIUS could or would block the acquisition as a whole.

Other countries are likely to be uncomfortable with a state-owned enterprise (SOE) holding a large market share in a particular subsector. They may impose conditions on the deal or, rather than gate-keeping, impose conditions on ChemChina activities once the deal is completed. The two firms’ communication with national regulators could change the terms of the acquisition.

An outright failure could come from the Chinese side. ChemChina cannot buy Syngenta with its own funds, it needs heavy support from either a government institution such as the Silk Road Fund or a state-owned bank like the Agriculture Bank of China. Nervousness about capital outflow means this is a particularly bad time for the state to cough up $30 billion or so.

Even so, Beijing will probably approve. Agricultural technology sits at the top of the list of strategic priorities, in light of shortages of water and arable land and fear of dependence on food imports. The Dow-Dupont merger and Monsanto’s previous bid for Syngentamake clear that sector consolidation is underway and Beijing must acquire a major asset soon or be left out.

Partly Open Door

Even if the Syngenta deal goes through smoothly, there will be no rush of $40 billion acquisitions. Current financials notwithstanding, ChemChina has a sound record to date in overseas acquisitions – Pirelli last year, multiple deals in France and Norway, and an agriculture purchase in Israel.

Many large SOEs have both poor financials and spottier track records. They could face greater distrust from foreign or Chinese regulators. Another large purchase in agriculture this year by any Chinese firm would set off alarms. Sectors such as telecom are permanently sensitive in various countries. Another purchase of Syngenta’s size may spook some governments if it comes too soon. Beijing’s worries about capital outflow are not prohibitive but they are real.

Nonetheless, we have entered a new world, which may require bravery. Other Chinese firms will study Syngenta, from financing through regulatory assent. As has occurred historically with Chinese outward investment, they will follow if the leader is successful.

Depending on how quickly Syngenta proceeds, the second half of this year could see another huge bid made. More in 2017 are possible. The maximum size of a Chinese investment has been below $20 billion. At $40 billion, tantalizing opportunities beckon.

The commodities bust has displaced traditional energy and mining majors as obvious targets, in favor of the real estate, hospitality, and entertainment industries. Transportation, including but not limited to autos, may also appeal.

China’s vast need for environmental technology mirrors its need in agriculture, highlighting a company such as ENGIE. One of its industrial conglomerates could try for a controlling stake in a firm like Siemens. Will European governments accept more premier names turning Chinese?

It’s not just Europe. With Chinese tourism booming, a firm or consortium could seek to buy Carnival Corp., for example. This might not provoke a political reaction but 8 percent of Apple or 25 percent of Disney — firms intensely interested in China – could do so. And 25 percent of Toyota certainly would.

Game Change

These assets and others are in range if China can consummate $40 billion takeovers. To now, countries have faced a comparatively low-stakes trade-off between the benefits of Chinese capital and discomfort with foreign control or SOEs in particular. The wider meaning of a successful Syngenta acquisition is their choices will soon be more difficult, and more visible.



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Will Trump default on America?

With Donald Trump’s victory in Nevada, the likelihood that he could be the Republican nominee is increasing. Even if Senators Marco Rubio or Ted Cruz take Texas and rebuild momentum, it may soon be too late to catch up.

Analysts have long stopped trying to figure out Trump’s true positions or political philosophy — if he has one — since he has flip-flopped so much. But on one issue, Trump has been both consistent and unapologetic: his business record and his defense of bankruptcy. If that’s a window into Trump’s vision for political leadership, it’s truly troubling.

Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Atlanta, Georgia February 21, 2016. REUTERS/Tami Chappell.

Donald Trump speaks at a rally in Atlanta, Georgia February 21, 2016. REUTERS/Tami Chappell.

Back in August 2015 — and sporadically since then — Donald Trump has deflected criticisms of the four major bankruptcies his business empire has weathered as just the cost of doing business or as his shrewdly using existing bankruptcy law to his advantage. Let’s put aside that, while his Chapter 11 bankruptcies have indeed allowed his businesses to live and see another day, they were the equivalent of throwing under the bus multiple up-and-coming smaller businesses which had contracted with the Trump empire.

The question at hand, if Trump is so proud of his tactics, is whether they provide a model for President Trump when dealing with what many (myself included) believe to be out-of-control American debt. Given Trump’s willingness to place a tactical game on bankruptcy against reputation, it is fair to ask whether or not he would default on all or part of America’s multi-trillion dollar debt. After all, given populist anger and the fact that the United States can’t continue to spend other peoples’ money ad infinitum, will Trump respond not with responsible fiscal reforms as someone like Mitt Romney once proposed or Cruz discusses (in his case with the elimination of unnecessary and bloated cabinet departments), but rather by simply declaring that the current terms are unsustainable? Ordinary Americans may support his blustery defense that he wants to keep American dollars in America.

In other words, under President Trump, will the United States become the new Argentina? The reverberations of such a move would be devastating, not only to the reputation of the United States but, given the fragility of the international economic system, to the world as a whole. But Trump may not understand or believe the consequences would be so grave that those who hold US debt would have no choice by to eliminate some. He may engage in a game of brinkmanship with the global economy, believing that those who hold American debt will have no choice but to deal lest their own economy tank. The question then becomes: what would Trump’s deal be? Would he forfeit American interests in East Asia? In Taiwan? In Southeast Asia in exchange for financial concessions? Or would he allow Chinese interests to enter sectors inside the United States like telecommunications and ports which hitherto have been blocked by national security concerns?

Trump’s business record isn’t simply a political weak point to provide fodder for his opponents’ campaign commercials; rather, it is a reflection of character and an insight into the tactics the man embraces. It’s bad enough when his tactics are utilized by a business mogul; it’s quite another should they be embraced by the president of the United States.



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Are we heading for a British sterling crisis?

In the post-war period, the United Kingdom has been no stranger to periodic sterling crises. Indeed, it experienced such virulent and damaging crises as recently as 1967, 1976 and 1992. However, this has not prevented Prime Minister David Cameron from risking yet another sterling crisis by calling a June 23 referendum on the issue of continued British membership in the European Union.

At the best, Cameron’s decision will subject the country to four months of acute political and economic uncertainty in the run-up to the referendum. At the worst, in the event of a vote for “Brexit,” as Cameron himself acknowledges, it could lead to “seven years of uncertainty” that would damage jobs, investment and the financial services sector.

From an economic point of view, the timing of the Brexit referendum could hardly be worse. The United Kingdom is presently running close to its largest external current account deficit in the post-war period. As Bank of England Governor Mark Carney recently reminded us, this makes the United Kingdom uncomfortably dependent on the “kindness of strangers” to finance that deficit.

A further factor putting sterling at risk is the fact that the U.K. economic recovery now appears to be running out of steam while the British government is still intent on a budget-tightening path to improve the country’s public finances. This will makes it very difficult for the Bank of England to raise interest rates to defend the currency.

In the event of a vote in favor of Brexit, there can be little doubt that sterling would experience an acute and prolonged crisis. This is the case for at least three basic reasons. First, Brexit would usher in an 18-month period of economic and political uncertainty during which the United Kingdom would have to renegotiate its arrangements with the European Union. One would expect that Britain’s spurned European partners would not be inclined to make those negotiations easy for Britain or to soften the blow to the U.K. economy from Brexit.

The second reason is that the City of London would likely lose its luster and experience an exodus of foreign banks. In the event of Brexit, those banks would no longer enjoy unrestricted access to the European markets as they now do from their London bases. Third, and perhaps most importantly, is the likelihood that the very future of the United Kingdom would be thrown into question by a Brexit. At a minimum, one has to expect that Scotland will want to revisit its independence issue, especially if the United Kingdom were no longer to be a part of the European Union. One also must expect independence pressures to be fanned in Wales.

Hopefully, the referendum will deliver a vote against Brexit that would spare the United Kingdom from years of economic uncertainty. However, even in the event of a vote to stay in Europe, one cannot exclude the possibility of a run on sterling in the run-up to the June 23 referendum. This would be particularly the case if, as was the case in the recent Scottish independence referendum, it turns out to be a closely fought referendum. If the referendum looks to be close, one must expect that both companies and households would not want to subject themselves to the risk of very large losses on their sterling holdings that would occur if the electorate delivered a Brexit verdict.

Needless to add, the Brexit referendum has considerable implications for the global economy. It is the very last thing that an anemic European economy and a Europe already having to contend with a rise in political populism now needs. A plunge in sterling would also hardly be helpful to the global economy in that it would heighten the risk of a currency war in which a number of major central banks are already trying to gain competitive advantage by taking measures to deliberately weaken their currencies. We must hope that cooler and more sensible heads prevail in the forthcoming Brexit referendum and that the U.K. electorate votes to stay in Europe.



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