Search Google

6/1/15

Iran’s Supreme Leader speaks on police and security

When it comes to maintaining domestic security, the Islamic Republic relies not only on the Basij, a paramilitary organization now folded into the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), but also the Law Enforcement Forces, an often equally paramilitary national police force. In the excerpted address given to leaders of the Law Enforcement Forces, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei exposes many of the social vulnerabilities which he fears could erode the success and religious character of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

Khamenei acknowledges major problems with drug use, rape, and sexual harassment, and complains about Iranian youth partying illegally. Here, paranoia infuses the ayatollah’s remarks, as he suggests a plot afoot in which “certain centers” purposely try to separate good Muslim youth from God. In this implication he is voicing a similar belief to that which has been propagated in the Sunni world by more radical factions of the Muslim Brotherhood and by Salafi clerics in Saudi Arabia, who denounce manifestations of Western culture permeating the Middle East as a deliberate plot to undermine Islam. Of additional concern to Khamenei is the behavior of the nouveau-riche who “get into expensive and fashionable cars and mess around on the streets.” Not addressed directly, but underlying this statement, is his concern that the families of these ostentatious youth have achieved their material success based on their connections to or participation in the government of the Islamic Republic.

Because of these myriad challenges, Khamenei charges the police not only with enforcing criminal codes, but also with promoting Islam. The Law Enforcement Forces may not, in theory, be as tied to religion as the Basij within the IRGC, but if Khamenei’s speech is any indication, that will soon change. Faced with a disenfranchised youth, it appears Khamenei could be setting the stage for a renewed cultural revolution.



from AEI » Latest Content http://ift.tt/1JeVm9P

Khamenei speaks to Iranian Army

Iranian strategists have embraced the concept of duality for centuries: rather than streamline government institutions, much Persian literature suggests that wise leaders should duplicate them so that a ruler can play institutions off each other and have them inform on the other and compete. Perhaps the best example within the Islamic Republic of Iran has been the military: the country has cultivated not only a regular military, but also the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Traditionally, the regular military was charged with territorial defense, while the IRGC was responsible for defense of the revolution against threats both external and internal. In practice, the IRGC was the more elite force privy to greater resources and higher technology, while the regular military was largely where conscripts did their time before heading to the university or to work.

The regime’s approach to the army may be changing, however, if the excerpted speech by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is any indication. He emphasizes the importance of Islam and Islamic ideology to the army. His citation of chapter 8 of the Quran—named Anfal, or the spoils of war, is also significant, as it described an early battle in which Muhammad’s forces triumphed against pagans and Jews. In more contemporary religious discussion it is often used to justify religiously tinged warfare. In effect, Khamenei is announcing that not only the IRGC, but also the regular army should be considered forces for the defense, if not propagation of religion.

Also important is Khamenei’s acknowledgement of the progress and diversity of Iran’s indigenous military industry. While United Nations Security Council resolutions have prohibited Iranian export of weaponry, they place few limits on Iranian military imports. Nevertheless, Khamenei’s embrace and endorsement of Iran’s indigenous weapons program suggests Iran will continue to rely on its own weapons programs out of fear that dependence on outside suppliers represents too great a vulnerability.



from AEI » Latest Content http://ift.tt/1JeVm9K

One possible lesson from the Great Recession that the GOP should consider

US housing starts peaked in January 2006. Home prices did the same in the middle of the year or early 2007, depending on the metric. Yet the jobless rate barely rose over the 2006-2007 period, from 4.9% at the end of 2005 to 5.0% at the end of 2007. But it was 7.3% by the end of 2008 and rising. Yet from April through October of that year, the Federal Reserve left unchanged its fed funds rate. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard now says “we should have done even more in 2007-2009. Something like nominal GDP targeting, if it’s appropriately formulated, does look like optimal policy.” That opinion is based on a new paper Bullard co-authored, “Optimal Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound.”

Economist Scott Sumner is favorably inclined toward this development:

The Fed held its fed funds target stable (at 2.0%) from late April to October 2008. This despite extremely serious deterioration in the labor market. But why? In the statement issued after the September 16, 2008 meeting, which occurred two days after Lehman failed, the Fed gave us their reasoning. They indicated that they saw equal risk of recession and high inflation. Given that they perceived these risks as balanced, they decided not to change policy.

In my view, policy was being continually tightened throughout this period. If we had had a NGDP futures market, it would have indicated falling NGDP expectations. TIPS spreads were declining, and reached 1.23% for the 5-year spread by the time of their September meeting.

Today we know that the real problem was deflation, which had set in by early 2009. But the Fed was worried about high inflation, and this led them to unintentionally tighten monetary policy. Even though the policy rate was stable at 2.0%, the Wicksellian natural rate was falling fast between April and October. Hence the effective stance of monetary policy was getting progressively tighter.

The new paper by James Bullard (who is president of the St Louis Fed) and three other researchers, tells us what went wrong in 2008. The Fed needed to allow a higher price level, to offset the negative shock from the housing/banking crisis. That would have required them to ease monetary policy. But the inflation numbers were very scary. Not only were they higher than the Fed’s 2% target, they were increasing up until July 2008, the last data point available by the September meeting. Little did they know that inflation had already fallen to 4.0% in August, and would reach less than 0.4% in December. By March of 2009 the 12-month inflation rate was negative—we were in deflation.

The markets figured out this problem before the Fed. If the Fed had adopted NGDP targeting, they would have ignored the inflation numbers and focused on NGDP growth. Even so, because of data lags they might have been a bit behind the curve. But the markets would have expected a catch-up from any near-term NGDP undershoot, and thus NGDP growth expectations would have stayed strong enough to prevent the economy from hitting the zero bound.

In a recent The Week column, I basically asked if Republicans had learned any economic lessons from the Great Recession. One possible takeaway might be that the Fed was too tight in 2008 and afterward, playing a huge role in the downturn and sluggish recovery. A second lesson would be that reform of the Fed should perhaps focus on what both Sumner and Bullard are talking about rather than what Republicans are mostly talking about these days.

 



from AEI » Latest Content http://ift.tt/1Q0rT7H

Patriot Act provisions expire: Barfield on Aljazeera’s ‘Morning News’

Resident Scholar Claude Barfield discusses the recent expiration of certain Patriot Act provisions on Aljazeera America's 'Morning News.'

from AEI » Latest Content http://ift.tt/1FpwDt7

Returning to the 90% top tax rates of the 1950s would probably be terrible for the US economy

This bit from Bernie Sanders’ recent interview with CNBC’s John Harwood illustrates some economic myths prevalent on the left:

HARWOOD: Have you seen some of the quotations from people on Wall Street, people in business? Some have even likened the progressive Democratic crusade to Hitler’s Germany hunting down the Jews.

SANDERS: It’s sick. And I think these people are so greedy, they’re so out of touch with reality, that they can come up and say that. They think they own the world. What a disgusting remark. I’m sorry to have to tell them, they live in the United States, they benefit from the United States, we have kids who are hungry in this country. We have people who are working two, three, four jobs, who can’t send their kids to college. You know what? Sorry, you’re all going to have to pay your fair share of taxes. If my memory is correct, when radical socialist Dwight D. Eisenhower was president, the highest marginal tax rate was something like 90 percent.

HARWOOD: When you think about 90 percent, you don’t think that’s obviously too high?

SANDERS: No. That’s not 90 percent of your income, you know? That’s the marginal. I’m sure you have some really right-wing nut types, but I’m not sure that every very wealthy person feels that it’s the worst thing in the world for them to pay more in taxes, to be honest with you. I think you’ve got a lot of millionaires saying, “You know what? I’ve made a whole lot of money. I don’t want to see kids go hungry in America. Yeah, I’ll pay my fair share.”

Yes, the US economy did quite nicely in the 1950s when the top tax rate was either 92% or 91% during those years. For the decade, annual real GDP growth averaged either 3.6% (1951-1960) or 4.2% (1950-1959), depending on how you define “decade.”  Pretty good either way despite three recessions (July 1953-May 1954, August 1957-April 1958, April 1960-February 1961).

So obviously superhigh tax rates would be no barrier to fast economic growth today, right? That’s obviously the conclusion Sanders wishes people to draw. But it’s not so simple. Very few taxpayers qualified for those top marginal rates back then. And the effective rates for those who did were considerably lower due to various tax breaks and loopholes. In fact, average tax rates for the richest Americans were not much different in the 1950s than in the 2000s. As inequality researchers Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez wrote in “How Progressive is the U.S. Federal Tax System? A Historical and International Perspective” back in 2007:

The average individual income tax rate in 1960 reached an average rate of 31 percent at the very top, only slightly above the 25 percent average rate a the very top in 2004. Within the 1960 version of the individual income tax, lower rates on realized capital gains, as well as deductions for interest payments and charitable contributions, reduced dramatically what otherwise looked like an extremely progressive tax schedule, with a top marginal tax rate on individual income of 91 percent.

Keep in mind that many on the left would like to combine very high tax rates with an elimination of many tax breaks and loopholes, raising effective tax rates to levels never before seen in the United States or anywhere else. (Not even France.) And I am pretty Sanders has no idea about the long-term impact of high tax rates on entrepreneurship.

What’s more, the 1950s saw economic growth and worker wages propelled by a number of one-off factors that helped offset those high tax rates. As AEI’s Ed Conard has explained:

The United States was prosperous for a unique set of reasons that are impossible to duplicate today, including a decade-long depression, the destruction of the rest of the world’s infrastructure, a failure of potential foreign competitors to educate their people, and a highly restricted supply of labor.

A National Bureau of Economic Research study described the situation this way:

At the end of World War II, the United States was the dominant industrial producer in the world. With industrial capacity destroyed in Europe—except for Scandinavia—and in Japan and crippled in the United Kingdom, the United States produced approximately 60 percent of the world output of manufactures in 1950, and its GNP was 61 percent of the total of the present (1979) OECD countries. This was obviously a transitory situation.

In other words, economic nostalgia for the 1950s is a poor guide for pro-growth policy today.

 



from AEI » Latest Content http://ift.tt/1KI5AQv

Supreme Court’s hearing on Obamacare: Gottlieb on CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box’

Resident Fellow Scott Gotlieb discusses the Supreme Court's hearing on Obamacare on CNBC's 'Squawk Box'

from AEI » Latest Content http://ift.tt/1JevevK

Is it time for civil disobedience of kludgeocratic bureaucracy?


Is there any way to reverse the trend to ever more intrusive, bossy government? Things have gotten to such a pass, argues Charles Murray, that only civil disobedience might — might — work. But the chances are good enough, he says, that he’s written a book about it: By the People: Rebuilding Liberty Without Permission.

Murray has a track record of making seemingly outlandish proposals that turn out to be widely accepted public policy. His 1984 book Losing Ground recommended the radical step of abolishing all welfare payments. A dozen years later the federal welfare reform act took a long step in that direction.

Murray was prompted to write By the People, he says, when a friend who owns a small business was confronted by OSHA inspectors and had an experience similar to one recounted in Philip Howard’s The Death of Common Sense.

The inspector found violations. Railings in his factory were 40 inches high, not 42; there was no automatic shutoff on a conveyor belt cordoned off from workers; a worker with a beard was allowed to use a non-close-fitting dust mask. Picayune stuff. But unless changes were made, the inspector said, we’ll put you out of business.

How had things come to this pass? Murray ascribes it to the abandonment of effective limits on government embedded in the Constitution by its prime architect James Madison. That started with the early twentieth century Progressives, who passed laws setting up independent and supposedly expert bureaucrats in charge of regulation, and furthered by New Deal Supreme Court decisions.

Murray argues that these mistakes cannot be reversed by the political or judicial processes. The Court won’t abandon longstanding doctrines on which millions of people have relied. Congress, even a Republican Congress working with a Republican president, won’t repeal vaguely worded statutes that give regulators wide-ranging discretion.

State and local governments are just as bad. They pass laws protecting established businesses (notably taxi cartels) by restricting competition.

What is to be done? Citizens, says Murray, should be willing to violate laws that the ordinary person would instantly recognize as ridiculous. And deep-pocketed citizens should set up a Madison Fund, to subsidize their legal defense and pay their fines.

Civil disobedience will stick in the craw of conservatives who revere law and order. Deep-pocket donors may be repelled. And Murray admits that deciding what regulations civil disobeyers should disobey involves tricky judgment calls.

But he argues that his project might not be entirely quixotic, because the nation has changed in ways not envisioned by the Progressives and New Dealers, and contrary to the predilections of the regulators at agencies like OSHA and EPA.

The Progressives thought that the nation was becoming more uniform and that supposedly disinterested regulators could and should make it more so. Murray points out that the contrary is the case.

The cultural uniformity that people remember from the post-World War II decades is the exception rather than the rule in American history. We were a religiously, ethnically, and regionally diverse nation in James Madison’s time, Murray says, and we are once again. The uniformity temporarily imposed by shared wartime and postwar experiences is no more.

In addition the assumption that centralized regulators would have unique expertise has proven unfounded. Government bureaucracy is increasingly a kludgeocracy (a word coined by the liberal political scientist Steven Teles), mindlessly enforcing absurdly precise rules by threatening ruin upon anyone who resists.

But regulators are actually thin on the ground, unequipped to deal with mass — and subsidized — civil disobedience. When a spotlight is shined on their tyrannical behavior, even courts will rebel.

Case in point: in 2012 the Supreme Court in Sackett v. EPA ruled that regulators couldn’t impose a $75,000 per day fine until the agency, in its own good time, acted on a landowner’s challenge to its ruling that his landlocked two-thirds of an acre parcel was a wetland.

The Progressive push to give politically insulated bureaucrats power to impose detailed and often incomprehensible rules was a product of the industrial era, a time when it was supposed that experts with stopwatches could design maximally productive assembly lines.

That idea is out of date in an information era, when expertise is widely dispersed and readily accessible to citizens acting on their own initiative and inspiration. Bureaucracy’s time has passed, Murray argues, and its tyranny is ripe to be overthrown by creative Madisonian civil disobedience.

Michael Barone is a senior political columnist for the Washington Examiner. This column is reprinted with permission from washingtonexaminer.com.



from AEI » Latest Content http://ift.tt/1M4pCTh

The tarring of e-cigarettes

When the prime-time cameras caught Julia Louis-Dreyfus “vaping” an electronic cigarette at the 2014 Golden Globes ceremony, cries of disapproval arose from our nation’s capital. Representative Henry Waxman (D., Calif.), then the ranking member of the Energy and Commerce Committee, and Representative Frank Pallone Jr. (D., N.J.) told the president of NBC that they were “dismayed” that the actress was “sending the wrong message to kids about these products.”

In a bruising Senate hearing a few months later, Senator Jay Rockefeller (D., W.Va.) tore into executives of two major e-cigarette companies: “I’m ashamed of you. I don’t know how you go to sleep at night. I don’t know what gets you to work in the morning except the color green of dollars. You are what is wrong with this country.”

To listen to these reactions, you would never guess that e-cigarettes, battery-powered devices that produce an aerosol solution of nicotine free of carcinogenic tar, offer any health benefits to smokers. In truth, e-cigarettes have the potential to ignite a public-health revolution. But thanks to alarm over speculative dangers, misleading spin on facts, and outright misrepresentations of the evidence, various lawmakers and public-health officials threaten to dash that promise.

What is driving the controversy over e-cigarettes? At its core lies a tension between two camps: the precautionists and the pragmatists.

The former have several concerns about e-cigarettes. First, that the health risks of the products haven’t been fully established. Second, that e-cigarettes will “renormalize” smoking and undo the gains of five decades of anti-smoking advocacy. Third, that vaping among teens will serve as a “gateway” to their eventual tobacco smoking.

The critics’ anxieties are not without merit, but they need to be placed in the context of the good that e-cigarettes do by sparing nicotine-dependent individuals from carcinogenic smoke. Precautionists are unmoved by the harm that comes to smokers who have failed to quit but who cannot take advantage of less dangerous ways of using nicotine. Accordingly, this camp seeks heavy regulatory oversight by the FDA and bans on television advertising and on vaping in public.

The pragmatists, who advance a public-health approach called “tobacco-harm reduction,” support electronic cigarettes because the devices are much less harmful than the considerable harms of combustible cigarettes. Pragmatists are not fixated on whether vaping is completely safe but on whether it is safer for smokers than cigarettes are. They are willing to make policy trade-offs on the basis of cost–benefit analyses. Some pragmatists hope that the FDA will go so far as to deem e-cigarettes outside its regulatory purview altogether — a decision that the agency could theoretically make within the next few weeks or months but almost surely will not. Pragmatists also want states to tax e-cigarettes minimally if at all, to incentivize smokers to switch. Pragmatists do agree with precautionists about e-cigarettes on one point: The devices should not be sold or marketed to children.

One of the highest-profile precautionists in the U.S. is Thomas Frieden, director of the Centers for Disease Control, which oversees the nation’s anti-smoking efforts. “There is much we don’t know about e-cigarettes,” he often laments. But we do know quite a bit: foremost, that they don’t combust tobacco and so do not produce carcinogenic tars and disease-producing gases, including carbon monoxide, which increases the risk of cardiovascular disease. This advantage makes vaping at least 95 percent safer than smoking tobacco, according to toxicologists.

E-cigarettes work by heating a nicotine solution, or e-liquid, which contains, in addition to flavoring, a substrate called propylene glycol. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration generally regards propylene glycol as safe; it is used in toothpaste, asthma inhalers, nicotine inhalers, and many other foods and cosmetics. Still, epidemiologists should monitor its long-term effect, if any, on the health of e-cigarette users, since the devices have simply not been around very long.

Vapor can contain other harmful substances, but the amounts are very low compared with those in cigarettes. For example, traces of nitrosamines, which are known carcinogens, can be found in e-liquid, but they exist at levels comparable to those found in medicinal products such as nicotine gum and patches, and at concentrations 500 to 1,400 times lower than those in regular cigarettes. Cadmium, lead, and nickel may be present in e-cigarette vapor, too, but in amounts and forms considered non-toxic.

Formaldehyde, a carcinogen, is low to non-existent in vapor, but a report published in January in The New England Journal of Medicine gave a far different impression. Titled “Hidden Formaldehyde in E-Cigarette Aerosols,” the article demonstrated that when a vaping device was overheated at unrealistically high voltage settings, the vapor was contaminated by levels of formaldehyde five to 15 times higher than those found in cigarette smoke.

A huge swirl of media coverage followed: “E-cigarettes Can Churn Out High Levels of Formaldehyde,” said the headline at NPR; “E-cigarettes Can Produce More Formaldehyde than Regular Cigarettes,” warned the one in the Los Angeles Times; “High Levels of Formaldehyde in E-cig Vapor,” announced WebMD.com. In truth, no user would ever heat an e-cigarette high enough to produce the recorded levels of formaldehyde in the study, because the resultant vapor would be intolerably irritating to the throat. Indeed, when the researchers tested the device at a voltage level normally used by vapers, no formaldehyde, none, was detected. This reassuring detail was buried deep in the news stories.

What of nicotine? In its pure form, nicotine is highly toxic, but the level delivered by vapor is low compared with that in cigarettes, and at that low level it is generally benign in healthy people (pregnant women being a major exception). But Frieden of the CDC sounds the alarm: “Nicotine can cause serious damage to the developing brains of teens.” This is a wildly exaggerated statement based on experiments with rat brains. To be sure, no one endorses vaping by non-smoking teens, but to date, no researcher has demonstrated negative or lasting clinical effects of nicotine on adolescent cognition or behavior.

Misrepresenting the facts about e-cigarettes and instilling doubt about their superiority to cigarettes is a dangerous game. It keeps smokers inhaling deadly toxins. After all, why give up the combustible devil you know if vaping is just as bad?

Yet such fear-mongering is now a standard talking point of major health organizations. Here is the American Cancer Society: “Until these things are monitored and regulated, there’s a real potential risk for unexpected exposure to toxic chemicals.” And the American Lung Association is “concerned about the potential health consequences of electronic cigarettes.” Globally, the World Health Organization has called e-cigarettes a “threat.” In response, 53 international health experts wrote a joint letter urging the WHO’s general director to “resist the urge” to “control and suppress” electronic cigarettes by classifying them as equivalent to cigarettes for purposes of regulation.

In the U.S., the CDC, the nation’s lead public-health agency, is the most vocal and visible critic of e-cigarettes. Last March, it launched a 20-week ad installment called “Tips from Former Smokers.” In one of the ads we meet 35-year-old Kristy, who lifts up her pink sweater to reveal a nasty-looking scar on her chest. “I started using e-cigarettes but kept smoking. Right up until my lung collapsed,” she says, unmistakably implying that e-cigarettes made it happen.

But wait. As the CDC explains elsewhere, Kristy’s lung collapsed sometime after she used e-cigarettes for a few months, stopped, and then resumed smoking tobacco. There are no reported cases of e-cigarette use resulting in collapsed lungs. If anything, when smokers with asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease switch to vaping, their lung function tends to improve.

To recruit someone for its ad, the CDC advertised a payment of $2,500 for “ex-smokers of any ethnic background who have been diagnosed with [a serious health condition] while smoking.” The agency could have sought out one of the thousands of smokers who now enjoy easier breathing because they were finally able to quit their cigarette habit by substituting e-cigarettes, but Kristy was a better fit for the CDC’s purposes.

The “gateway” theory mentioned earlier looms large in the CDC campaign. If vaping truly made young people more likely to progress to smoking, this would definitely be worth knowing. But there is no sign of a gateway effect, at least not yet. In fact, while more kids are vaping each year, teen cigarette consumption (measured as use of a conventional, combustible cigarette “at least once within the past 30 days”) continues to fall. Indeed, the latest CDC data, released mere weeks after the campaign launch, show a tripling in the rate of use of e-cigarettes by high-school students, from 4.5 percent in 2013 to 13.5 percent in 2014. Notably, this occurred in the context of a historic drop in the smoking of traditional cigarettes, from 12.7 percent of high-schoolers in 2013 to just 9.2 percent in 2014. (Do note, however, that the CDC measure of frequency — at least once in the past month — does not distinguish among teens who once tried a puff of a friend’s e-cigarette, those who were intrigued and experimenting, and those who were using it specifically to quit smoking.)

One cannot rule out the possibility that a gateway effect will manifest itself in the future — the CDC has been collecting data on e-cigarette use by teens for only four years — but the current numbers indicate that e-cigarettes are a gateway out of tobacco smoking for some teens and are diverting others from taking up the habit. So far, the CDC’s own data are encouraging, yet Frieden called them “shocking” and “alarming.” “This is another generation being hooked by the tobacco industry,” he told the New York Times.

Beyond the precautionary impulse, the war on vaping is also haunted by the specter of Big Tobacco. (E-cigarettes contain no tobacco leaf, but their nicotine is extracted from the plant.) The major tobacco companies Altria, Reynolds, and Lorillard now have e-cigarette lines and advertise their brands. That connection to the tobacco industry imparts too much of a taint to vaping, some public-health advocates insist. “Given the long history of tobacco-industry deception, such advocates assert that there can be no room for compromise when it comes to a product in which Big Tobacco has any interest,” wrote Amy Fairchild and Ronald Bayer, both of Columbia University’s School of Public Health, in Science.

Such anti-tobacco animus helps explain a glaring paradox within public-health circles: Many public-health experts avidly embrace harm reduction for other conditions — needle exchange and methadone for heroin addicts, “wet” public housing for people who continue to drink, condom distribution and HPV vaccination for sexually active adolescents — but, for nicotine addiction, they urge abstinence and downplay the importance of a less risky alternative.

There is also the question of money. The rise of e-cigarettes means lower profits for the pharmaceutical companies that make nicotine gum, patches, and anti-smoking medications, and less revenue for states that are addicted to cigarette taxes. For tobacco companies, each e-cigarette purchased means fewer cigarettes sold. It’s not surprising, then, that the profit-seekers have aligned with the prohibitionists to promote heavy-handed and costly FDA regulation that would suppress e-cigarette use and overwhelm the budgets of small, upstart vaping companies. Economist Bruce Yandle calls such collaboration between odd bedfellows the “bootleggers and Baptists” model of regulation, reminiscent of the days when both bootleggers and Baptists wanted saloons to be closed on Sunday — the bootleggers to boost illicit sales of alcohol, the Baptists to raise church attendance and preserve the Sabbath from dishonor.

In general, the prospect for electronic cigarettes is not as glowing as it should be. Only 8 percent of the nation’s 40 million smokers use them regularly. There are several reasons for this. For one, even the newest generation of e-cigarettes is not as satisfying as standard cigarettes, many smokers report. Also, the perception that e-cigarettes are dangerous is growing, thanks to menacing portrayals of them by precautionists. A report last year in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine showed that whereas nearly 85 percent of smokers in 2010 believed that e-cigarettes were safer than cigarettes, that number had dropped to 65 percent in 2013.

To be sure, there are instances in which concerns about quality control are warranted. Most vaping products are well made, but there have been reports of inaccurate labeling of e-liquids and of shoddy counterfeits, exported from China, that emit unacceptable levels of toxin in the vapor. The FDA can fix these problems by issuing standards for the production of e-liquids and for battery and electronics safety and by modestly regulating flavoring through a ban on diacetyl, which, when inhaled, can cause a rare form of obstructive lung disease. Also needed is childproof packaging that carries a warning: “This product contains nicotine, which is addictive and intended for adult smokers only.”

And more research on e-cigarettes must be done. We should monitor, for example, the possibility of a gateway phenomenon in case its manifestation lags years behind the documented teen experimentation already under way. Epidemiologists need to refine their survey questions to get a more nuanced understanding of usage patterns. Long-term effects, if any, of propylene glycol must be tracked, and so on.

The standoff between the precautionists and the pragmatists essentially boils down to their orientation toward risk — should we aim for none, or much less than there is now — and the moral connotations they attach to it. The contest will not be resolved readily because any vacuum of information leads those with a precautionary temperament to imagine worst-case outcomes, mass-produce reams of nervous commentary, and sanctimoniously call for tight restriction on the freedom to engage in novel practices.

The CDC falls squarely in the precautionist camp. It gives disproportionate weight to skeptics’ unsubstantiated claims about e-cigarettes as it minimizes their estimable benefit and foments panic. This is bad for smokers who have tried to quit and can’t, bad for the integrity of public health as a field, and bad for the credibility of the CDC, whose tarring of electronic cigarettes is a shameful violation of public trust.

The introduction and technological evolution of electronic cigarettes presents a golden opportunity for the agency to show the public the necessity of weighing tradeoffs. For those who have tried and failed to quit smoking tobacco, the CDC is basically saying, “Drop dead.” Its message to them should instead be “Thank you for vaping.”

 



from AEI » Latest Content http://ift.tt/1FPfv2k

Senate prepares to debate extending provisions of the Patriot Act: Bolton on Fox News’ ‘America’s News HQ’

Senior Fellow John Bolton discusses Rand Paul's position on NSA surveillance on Fox News' America's News HQ.

from AEI » Latest Content http://ift.tt/1FPfueT

Discussion on United States foreign policy: Bolton on Fox News’ ‘Justice with Judge Jeanine’

Senior Fellow John Bolton discusses the United States fight against ISIS on Fox News' 'Justice with Judge Jeanine'

from AEI » Latest Content http://ift.tt/1ctE2zg

Search Google

Blog Archive