A CBS News/New York Times national poll released earlier before last night’s CNBC-GOP debate provided strong hints of how people would react to Jeb Bush’s debate performance. No, I’m not talking about the question about the Republican field, in which Bush came in fourth among self-described Republican primary voters after Ben Carson’s presidential campaign, Donald Trump, and a little behind Marco Rubio. Nor am I talking about the question that asked these same Republicans who had the best chance of winning next November. In that question, Bush came in third, far behind Trump and a little ahead of Rubio. (In August, Bush was essentially tied with Trump for the top spot).
The question that caught my eye in the CBS/Times poll was the one that asked these Republicans about their enthusiasm for various candidates if they became the nominee. Forty-eight percent said they would enthusiastically support Ben Carson, and around 30 percent said they would feel that way about Rubio, Fiorina, and Trump. Twenty-six percent said they would strongly support Ted Cruz. But only 18 percent said they would support Jeb with such gusto. Perhaps even more devastating, 24 percent said they would support him only because he was the party’s nominee, and another 25 percent said they wouldn’t support him.
A one-on-one debate between Jeb Bush and Hillary Clinton would be a match of equals. Both are deeply substantive, and both would do their homework. Bush would be a worthy adversary in that situation. But he flails in the multicandidate encounters with people who have stronger personalities.
Particularly embarrassing in last night’s debate was his exchange with Marco Rubio, not because Rubio had a clear or compelling response to the question about his attendance record in the Senate, but because Bush just didn’t seem himself in delivering the punch. The attack seemed scripted by the campaign, but that doesn’t work if the candidate can’t pull it off.
Is Jeb’s journey at an end? The old cliché “time will tell” is all we can say at this point, but he is uniquely unsuited to the thrust and parry of multicandidate forums. And there are more of those to come. Even if the candidates can get some changes in the debate format, as some seemed eager to do after last night’s spectacle, it will still be an uphill climb for the candidate who was once the front runner.
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