The Real Clear Politics average of polls in the Kentucky governor race, published Oct. 30, showed Democrat Jack Conway leading Republican Matt Bevin 44%-41%. But in the Nov. 3 election Mr. Bevin won 53%-44%. The polls were wrong, election watchers exclaimed, once again. The RCP average of polls just before Kentucky’s 2014 Senate race showed Mitch McConnell ahead of Democrat Alison Grimes, 49%-42%. Mr. McConnell won, 56%-41%.
Kentucky is not the only place where the polls seem to be getting it wrong. The 15 public polls conducted in the week before Britain’s election last May showed the Conservative party leading Labour 34%-33%. Conservatives won the popular vote 38%-31%. The exit poll released at 10 p.m. on election night came closer but projected Conservatives winning 316 seats in the House of Commons, 10 short of a majority. They won 332. Similarly, pre-election polls in this year’s elections in Israel and Argentina seem to have been notably different from actual results.
In all these cases, polls seem to have understated actual support for right-of-center candidates and parties while coming fairly close to actual percentages for those left of center. It may be that some conservative voters, disgruntled with party leaders as poll results indicate, refuse to commit to voting for their parties until election day. Or they may be what in Britain are called “shy Tories,” reluctant to publicly declare themselves because the mainstream media treat conservatism as a stigma.
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