Millions of people in Turkey will cast their votes on Sunday in a referendum that could fundamentally change how the country is governed. If passed, the new constitution would give President Recep Tayyip Erdogan sweeping new power over Turkish politics and potentially let him rule for more than a decade to come.
Turks are deeply polarized over the referendum, and many of Erdogan’s political opponents worry about reprisal if they were to speak out against reforms. But despite a fervent campaign from Erdogan and the ruling AK Party to push a “yes” result, polls still show an incredibly tight race days.
“Against insurmountable odds, complete blanket coverage of the ‘yes’ campaign, there is stiff resistance to this among the Turkish population,” said Aaron Stein, a resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank.
The proposed new constitution would have wide-ranging effects, such as increasing the number of seats in Parliament, but the greatest change would be the powers granted to the president. Erdogan would become head of the executive and of the state, doing away with the role of prime minister. He could dismiss Parliament, call a state of emergency, appoint ministers and judges ― all without approval from lawmakers.
The constitutional changes also include a provision that the president would be eligible to hold office for two five-year terms. Turkey has elections scheduled in two years, which could mean that Erdogan would have a chance to be in power until at least 2029.
Turkey has been mired in turmoil since an attempted coup last year failed to topple Erdogan, and the government continues to crack down on perceived dissent in public and private institutions in its aftermath. There is also a resurgent conflict between Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) militants and the government, which has led to terrorist bombings and harsh reprisals from authorities.
Erdogan is arguing that an executive presidency through a new constitution will provide the reform that Turkey’s often gridlocked political system needs, as well as bring about more stability. Throughout the campaign, Erdogan has also tried to drum up nationalist support by pushing a narrative that Turkey is taking a stand against other nations seeking to vilify it ― a tactic that included him accusing Dutch and German governments of Nazism during a diplomatic spat last month.
The political situation in Turkey has changed significantly since the 2016 coup attempt, which Erdogan blames on exiled U.S.-based cleric Fethullah Gulen. In an attempt to remove dissent, Turkish authorities have fired or imprisoned tens of thousands of people, including academics, journalists and members of the armed forces. At least 40,000 teachers alone have been removed from their posts for allegedly supporting Gulen.
Political opposition parties have also been targeted. The Pro-Kurdish HDP, which won a surprising number of seats in the 2015 elections, has had many of its prominent members arrested on vague charges.
In past years, a number of opposition parties had backed the idea of constitutional reform to remedy the country’s fractious coalition governments ― but as Erdogan grows more authoritarian and the new constitution focuses so heavily on the presidency, many parties are urging a “no” vote.
Amid the government’s crackdown, Sunday’s vote has become less a referendum on constitutional reforms and more about Erdogan himself. Even though the president has become increasingly repressive and has moved toward illiberal government, Erdogan still commands huge support. He is no longer counting on a wide range of voters to back his presidency, however. Instead, he relies on a loyal base of conservative supporters and some elements of the far-right.
“[Erdogan’s] weakness is that he now relies entirely on political polarization for popularity,” Stein said. “It’s no longer consensus-building across different factions in Turkey. It is a very right-wing, nationalist base that supports him.”
If Erdogan fails to rally the support needed to push the “yes” campaign over the top, Turkey is expected to deal with political instability in the fallout. A loss could weaken Erdogan and cause internal challenges against his hold on power ― but the opposition is divided and the president would still control significant influence over all areas of government. It’s possible, too, that the AK Party would attempt to pass the measures through parliament if it gains a majority in future elections.
Although forecasts show a neck-and-neck race going into Sunday’s vote, polling in Turkey historically has been unreliable. Pollsters are having to call as many as three times more people than normal to get the numbers needed for surveys ― respondents are reportedly reticent to openly talk about their votes with someone they don’t know.
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