Every winter, Punxsutawney Phil emerges from his burrow in central Pennsylvania. If he sees his shadow and returns to his hole, that means there will be six more weeks of winter. Skeptics might roll their eyes at the accuracy of a groundhog’s predictions, but when it comes to the new Saudi Crown Prince, Muhammad Bin Nayyef, predictions are much clearer. Whether or not the Saudi groundhog sees his shadow, he will plant the seeds for decades more sectarian hatred and push sectarian warfare to the forefront of Saudi foreign policy.
When King Abdullah died and Crown Prince Salman took over the Saudi throne, I wrote that there were dark clouds on the horizon with the appointment of the 55-year-old Muhammad bin Nayef as deputy crown prince. The problem was that Bin Nayef is a sectarian hardliner and pretty reactionary when it comes to reforms such as allowing women to drive.
Earlier today, 79-year-old King Salman, frail and in poor health, issued a series of decrees shaking up the Saudi government. Long story short, Bin Nayef is now crown prince, his succession to the top spot in the kingdom virtually assured.
Certainly, sectarianism is a two-way street and Iran isn’t simply playing defense in the region. Iran is responsible for propping up an odious, chemical weapon-using barrel-bombing regime in Damascus. But Saudi Arabia is just as responsible for taking a moderate, anti-authoritarian opposition in Syria and providing it the intellectual and material sustenance to transform it into the Islamic State. Likewise, it was Saudi sponsorship of hardline, sectarian religious seminaries in northern Yemen that catalyzed Houthi radicalism in the first place. Bin Nayef is also the driving force behind the Saudi bombing campaign in Yemen, and appears to be doubling down on Saudi Arabia’s sectarian ideology. There’s nothing wrong with religion, but the interpretation of religion—even within the Salafi spectrum—which Bin Nayef appears to embrace is among the most chauvinist and intolerant brand possible.
Outside observers should not assume sectarianism is simply a fact of life and the current polarization between Sunnis and Shi’ites is how it has always been. Islamic history shows that sectarianism is fluid. In some centuries, Shi’ites and Sunnis have lived together peaceful and in other centuries, sectarianism has reared its ugly head resulting in hundreds of thousands if not millions of deaths. What determines tolerance is leadership. Quietly, religious figures from Najaf and Karbala on one hand, and al-Azhar University in Cairo on the other, have begun a dialogue to take the Islamic world back from the brink. That’s leadership. But, when put in a position of power, Bin Nayef has shown he wants to fight a millennia-long war rather than find a resolution to the cancer eating away at the entire Middle East.
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