Poll: Republican primary still up for grabs, Clinton still dominating

The flock of Republican presidential candidates have reason for anxiety about their own primary and fear about the general election, according to a new poll from CNN/ORC. A national poll is of limited use in a presidential race that's run state by state, but it can signal broad trends, and those trends are loud and clear in this poll: Republicans are in a primary race that's very much undecided, and Hillary Clinton has an easy path to the Democratic nomination and a serious lead in the general.

Overall, 17% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents back Bush for the GOP nomination, while 12% support Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker. Paul and Rubio stand at 11% each, with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee at 9% and Cruz at 7%. Former neurosurgeon Ben Carson and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, both of whom placed second in CNN/ORC polls as recently as last fall, are now well behind the leader at 4% each.

What, no Donald Trump? In any case, Jeb Bush's lead in the national poll covers his weakness in Iowa polling, and his fragile sliver of a lead in New Hampshire. That again highlights just how up in the air this race is: Will we see a replay of the 2012 Republican primary where an establishment pick, unloved by voters, hangs on as one after another of his challengers becomes the front-runner for a week or two? Or will Scott Walker or Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio consolidate support as the not-Bush and win? The nomination, that is:

Marco Rubio fares best against the former first lady, trailing Clinton by 14 points, 55% to 41%. Bush trails Clinton by 17 points, 56% to 39%. Christie and Paul fall 19 points behind Clinton, each putting up 39% to Clinton's 58%. Huckabee, Walker, Carson and Cruz each trail Clinton by more than 20 points.

Obviously the general election margin won't be anywhere near this big, and in a closer race, the state-by-state nature of the election can make national polling all but useless. But it's kinda difficult to think of an electoral map that can erase a minimum 14-point lead, which is why you can expect increasingly outlandish and vicious Republican attacks on Hillary Clinton.

Oh, and meanwhile? Rand Paul might need to rethink his argument that Republican primary voters should choose him because he's the strongest candidate against Clinton.

from Daily Kos http://ift.tt/1Ixs0Qf