Many people are intrigued by official Chinese GDP growth dropping from 13% in 2007 to 7% now. This is better: official Chinese coal production growth fell from 12.7% in 2008 to (approximately) -3.5% in the first quarter of this year. It’s an economic and social sea change.
Also a rare event: someone in DC (me) admits a mistake. Rapid Chinese coal production continued even after the financial crisis hit and some observers (me) then drew the conclusion it would slow only gradually. How wrong those poor saps were.
Chinese coal output is publicized irregularly but state media report an industry estimate of a 2% drop in 2014. Then the faster fall from January through March this year. Of course, the trend could reverse again but its very existence constitutes a powerful change.
Official data on coal are flawed but previously showed output more than quadrupling from 880 million tons in 2000 to 3.7 billion tons in 2013. Annual growth averaged 11% for 14 years and was close to 9%, on a huge base, as recently as 2011.
While there’s no guarantee, it’s now possible Chinese coal production has peaked. Consumption, too – the first quarter saw a 42% plunge in import volume to 49 million tons, contributing to a 4.7% decline in domestic coal sales.
The explanation is a long-term economic slowdown and the ecologically-driven policy and popular shift from coal as lifeblood to coal as undesirable. The policy shift – accepting high oil and gas import dependence and spending heavily on solar and wind — shows China can move quickly (talk of gradual reform is often cover for unwillingness to act).
Growing popular antipathy was expected in light of coal’s environmental costs, especially where production practices are unsound and clean water is scarce. The timing matches a shift in the labor market. Employment fears began to ease in 2012, when the labor force may have started declining in size. This cleared the way for more people to emphasize quality of life over jobs.
The implications are also economic and ecologic. Buried in China’s need to restructure economically is China matching the rest of the world combined in coal production. For years, coal has generated a fast-rising amount of jobs and revenue. Those days appear over, permanently, and the economy must adjust.
The long-term environmental impacts include cleaner air and less water use. Perhaps the most visible short-term impact involves global negotiations over carbon emissions.
Lumping China and the US together as the world’s top two emitters obscures the fact that China’s annual emissions are now almost twice as high. For cumulative emissions since 1990, China will shortly pass the US and pull away.
The trends have inhibited global cooperation, since agreements have little value unless Chinese emissions growth is reversed. With China’s coal production now in reverse, emissions growth could follow. And it does not require unbalanced American concessions or leaps of faith in the name of science, just a continuation of last year and the first quarter of this year.
Follow AEIdeas on Twitter at @AEIdeas.
from AEI » Latest Content http://ift.tt/1JvpFcf
0 التعليقات:
Post a Comment