Rumbling about the Assad regime being on its last legs is growing. Liz Sly at the Washington Post had a good analytical piece earlier this week, and former US Ambassador Robert Ford followed on with another look at how the scion of one of the Middle East’s most murderous families is losing his grip. The facts are straightforward: Rebel forces have been advancing on government/Hezbollah/Iranian-held towns with growing success. Led by al Qaeda ally Jabhat al Nusra (JN) in coordination with a mishmash of other Islamist groups, Assad’s opponents appear to be consolidating their hold over Idlib province, and are making gains elsewhere around the country. And, as multiple analysts have noted, at the same time that JN et al appear to be coordinating more effectively (while shutting out ISIS and its allies), Assad’s own forces seem to have lost the will to fight.
The scene on the Assad political front tells the same story, albeit with a healthy overlay of the who’s–up-who’s-down gossip that characterizes any discussion of Lebanese or Syrian politics: Rustom Ghazali, head of the Political Security Directorate and an Assad henchman in the death of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, is dead after “an internal government dispute” with Rafiq Shehadeh, head of military intel. Shehadeh’s not dead, but he’s out. What was the fight about? Some say it was over Iran’s growing role in southern Syria, near Lebanon and Israel. Others say it was a more mundane fight about fuel smuggling. Also gone: Assad cousin and trustee Hafez Makhlouf. There’s also trouble in the family, with Munther al Assad reportedly arrested or admonished over reaching out to his charming uncle, Rifaat about growing Alawi discontent with the war. (Rifaat, btw, is being investigated by the French government for being really rich. Nevermind his role in the Hama massacre.)
Assad is also looking more conciliatory, signaling in a couple of Moscow trips that he’s willing to talk to the opposition. Well, some opposition. Then there are upcoming talks in Geneva with the UN Syria envoy, Steffan de Mistura, which government reps may (or may not) join.
A lot of the latest feels like good news, but is it? Not really. Assad falling is good news. JN prevailing is not. Iran’s numero uno ally getting his butt kicked is great. But Iran, the IRGC and Hezbollah are unlikely to lose total control. Meanwhile, back in what is increasingly a provincial capital irrelevant to the future of the region, Barack Obama appears to have absolutely no clue about what’s next. Much as the inane devolution of power to Iran fails to appreciate the bankruptcy of the enemy-of-my-enemy weltanschauung that passes for leadership in DC, a victory by al Qaeda over ISIS is not really a cause for celebration. And notwithstanding a new Saudi role in coordinating among some of these Islamist/jihadi groups, the odds of Saudi Arabia being an effective manager of US national security interests also appear slim.
Whatever happens next in Syria, stability isn’t going to be the name of the game. And Team Obama has been counting on a long-drawn out war of attrition to allow it to focus on the US non-policy in Iraq and Yemen. That’s not going to happen, and it’s time to figure out who we want to win, how, and get moving. Otherwise Syria is going to settle into a group of terrorist fiefdoms with time on their hands to think about how to attack the United States and its allies.
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