A convoy of seven cargo ships left Iran’s largest port of Bandar Abbas last week reportedly carrying arms for the al Houthi rebels in Yemen. Just three days after the US announced the arrival of the USS Roosevelt aircraft carrier strike group into the area, the Iranian ships appeared to be altering course. The Pentagon has not confirmed the convoy is turning back, but has Tehran already blinked in what could have become one of the tensest confrontations between the US and Iranian militaries in recent memory?
The Iranian flotilla was particularly provocative on several counts. Sending a large arms shipment in the midst of an expanding Yemeni civil war and during the Saudi-led Arab military campaign against the al Houthis, Operation Decisive Storm, is by itself remarkably blatant and escalatory. But Western media have also reported surface-to air missiles and rockets may be on the ships. Tehran had consistently denied it was providing the al Houthis with weapons or military aid and had touted itself—rather than Riyadh— as the more reasonable and mature regional leader in attempting to resolve the conflict diplomatically. That is a very tough narrative to sell now.
The convoy was also a direct affront to the recent United Nations Security Council resolution. Passed on April 14, the resolution placed an arms embargo on former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh and al Houthi commanders Abdullah Yahya al-Hakim and Abd al-Khaliq al-Houthi. Widely perceived as targeting Iran, Supreme Leader Khamenei’s foreign policy advisor Ali Akbar Velayati called the resolution “by no means fair.” Given the timing of the Iranian ships’ departure and the UN debate, Russia’s decision to abandon its competing resolution and quietly abstain from the vote on Jordan’s proposal may have been influenced by credible intelligence or other strong indicators provided to the UN Security Council that Iran was preparing the arms shipment.
The seven ship convoy, joined by two Iranian naval vessels previously tasked to the area, is also an unusually high profile operation for Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC is in charge of supplying and training Iran’s allied and proxy forces around the world and controls the port the ships left. This convoy would only have deployed under the IRGC’s direction with likely coordination from Iran’s regular navy. Past interdicted or suspected IRGC arms shipments have been much more discrete, usually only involving one ship and often flagged under another country.
Bottom line, Iran was throwing down the gauntlet to Saudi Arabia and the US, testing our (and Riyadh’s) redlines on preventing the arming of the al Houthis.
The US military’s actions may be proving a sufficient response so far. Granted, a forcible boarding in international waters was a step the US was not likely to be able or willing to take. Although US officials maintained the stated mission of the USS Roosevelt was to ensure “freedom of navigation and free flow of commerce,” the redirection of the strike group was very likely intended to aid the enforcement of the embargo in addition to supporting US and allied operations in Yemen.
The Yemen conflict is a test of a new Middle East order that Iran hopes—and the Arab states fear—may emerge in the wake of a comprehensive nuclear agreement with Tehran. If the US administration was optimistic Iran would become a “reasonable and practical” partner for stability in region after a nuclear deal, the Yemen arms convoy is not a good sign. But if the IRGC is indeed recalling its ships, it should hearten our allies and serve as reminder that Iran will back down in the face of US resoluteness and deterrence. Perhaps the US Navy will have some pointers for our diplomats in Vienna this week.
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