Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s fears of humiliation by the United States in the nuclear talks showed beneath anger, threats, and bombast in an impassioned speech on May 6. Speaking to Iranian educators in Tehran, Khamenei stated that Iran will not negotiate under the specter of military threats. The Supreme Leader seemed to be particularly piqued about comments from Vice President Joe Biden on April 30 that the president is willing to use “all instruments of American power” to prevent Iran from getting bomb, and from Secretary of State John Kerry reminding reporters in Israel on May 3 that the United States has developed a weapon—the Massive Ordinance Penetrator or MOP—to destroy Iran’s nuclear program if needed.
As Khamenei said:
If a nation cannot defend its identity and greatness against foreigners, certainly it will be struck…In these last few days, two American officials made threats…[They expect] us to negotiate under the shadow of a threat; it is like having a sword above our head. The Iranian nation is not like that…[it] does not tolerate negotiations under the shadow of threat.
They say, ‘if this or that does not happen, we will take military action against Iran.’ First of all, you will not do a damn thing. Second, I said it during the previous American president’s tenure that the time for attacks going unpunished is over. It will not be the case for you to attack [Iran] and then leave. Your feet will be trapped in the sand, and then we will come after you. The Iranian nation will not let any aggression go unpunished.
The comments from Biden and Kerry are nothing new, nor is the Supreme Leader’s deterrent rhetoric. The United States has not publicly shifted its policy on the potential use of force against the Iranian nuclear program since the current diplomatic effort began in 2013. But there has been an implicit understanding that the United States would not conduct an attack while negotiations are ongoing, and that Washington would restrain Israel from executing a strike either. Relief from the threat of force was a big reason for Iran to start talks in the first place (along with sanctions removal and several other key factors [for more, see here.])
The return of somewhat more bellicose language from US officials comes at a sensitive time in the nuclear negotiations. As we approach the June 30 deadline for a comprehensive deal, Khamenei is stressing his redlines on issues like upfront sanctions relief and inspections. That is all part of the game to get the best terms possible. A final agreement will almost certainly require Iran to back down somewhat on these critical points. Tehran will finesse the backtracking for domestic audiences, but Khamenei cannot look like he is buckling under US military pressure. That is likely the humiliation he fears.
Khamenei stressed:
The negotiators can carry on the negotiations and reach an agreement while observing the redlines. However, they should not welcome any imposition of humiliation and threats.
The recent withdrawal of an Iranian convoy carrying arms to the al Houthi rebels in Yemen, and the release of the M/V Maersk Tigris (detained in the Strait of Hormuz by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy on April 28) in the face of a determined US Navy makes Khamenei all the more sensitive to the perception of weakness. Not that we should be too concerned. The ayatollah’s outrage means gentle reminders of US power are having the intended effect.
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