The upcoming presidential election in Poland seems like a rather dull affair. Given Central Europe’s turbulent politics and the rise of Russian influence in the region, that is a wonderful thing.
The incumbent, 62-year old Bronislaw Komorowski, nominated by the center-right Civic Platform, is leading in the polls, in spite of his slow-moving election campaign. He is unlikely to win in the first round on Sunday, as that would require an absolute majority of all votes. While the run-off could be tight, it is difficult to imagine a scenario leading to Mr. Komorowski’s defeat.
Although the president’s position is largely ceremonial, Mr. Komorowski’s calm style has helped to set Poland apart from other Central European countries, dominated by strong, often erratic personalities, such as President Milos Zeman of the Czech Republic, or Prime Ministers Robert Fico and Viktor Orban, respectively of Slovakia and Hungary – all of whom have expressed sympathies for Vladimir Putin’s actions and call for a weakening of the sanctions imposed on Russia by the European Union (EU).
The main challenger in the Polish election, Andrzej Duda, is a lawyer running for the right-populist Law and Justice party – led by the late president’s twin brother, Jaroslaw Kaczynski. Though no fan of Mr. Putin, his rhetoric is heavy on populism, combined with a distinctly Central European strand of social conservatism. Besides being critical of in-vitro fertilization, as Mr. Komorowski’s campaign reminded voters last week, he opposes the upcoming liberalization of the market for agricultural land in Poland. “We must strive to protect the Polish land, we cannot give it up to foreign hands,” he said earlier this year, glossing over the fact that Poland committed to such liberalization when it joined the EU.
The Polish political left, in the meantime, is just trolling. The Democratic Left Alliance, the ‘reformed’ successor of Poland’s defunct communist party, nominated Magdalena Ogorek as their presidential candidate. A 36-year old historian and TV personality, she has a public profile – among other roles, she played the part of a nurse in the popular medical drama series, ‘Na dobre i na zle’ (‘For Better and For Worse’), currently in its 15th season – but offers very little in terms of qualifications for public office.
Ms. Ogorek, however, is a vocal advocate of closer relations with Russia – a view not quite shared by the other left-leaning, and also largely irrelevant, candidate, Janusz Palikot. The colorful businessman, known for his publicity stunts – he once used a sex toy and a gun as props at a press conference – is blamed for the progressive vulgarization of public debates in the country, also dubbed ‘palikotization’. “If the two left-wing candidates get a combined 10 percent, they will be very lucky, given that recent polls place them at six percent,” wrote Politico’s Annabelle Chapman.
Completing the spectrum is the extreme reactionary Janusz Korwin-Mikke, another member of European Parliament. He identifies himself as a defender of free markets and was indeed once publishing Milton Friedman’s works in Polish samizdat but his actual views make him a very odd follower of Friedman and Hayek. He believes, for example, that “women are dumber than men and should not be allowed to vote” and that democracy is “the stupidest form of government ever conceived.” Characteristically, Mr. Korwin-Mikke also has been defending Vladimir Putin’s aggression war against Ukraine, describing it as a natural reaction to the gradual encircling of Russia by NATO.
Increasingly prosperous, and with a population of almost 39 million, Poland has grown into a significant regional player. Poles also saw the danger coming from the East more clearly than other European countries – and indeed better than the current American administration. It is in the West’s interest that Poland keeps playing its role in the years to come. To that end, the more boring is the election this Sunday, the better.
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