This blog series analyzes the most important Iran news events of the past week and provides an outlook of the regime’s strategic calculus.
The Iranian leadership is finally settling in to the reality of a potential nuclear deal come this summer, and bracing for the political and economic impact. Optimism in Tehran for a deal remains high, as best shown by Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s overweening tour de force in New York last week touting a likely agreement and the potential for a new post-deal Middle East order. But, even if a deal is reached, Iran will still face significant domestic and foreign challenges. Iran’s need to shore up its resources for the long regional fight ahead—and for the daunting economic restructuring needed at home—will only strengthen its determination to get a deal. But the US needs to understand Iran’s insecurities could produce some harsh crackdowns internally or seemingly erratic or escalatory behavior in the region. Iran may not know what do with success once it has it.
Rouhani encourages foreign investment…: President Rouhani continued efforts to convince Iran’s elite that an influx of foreign investment after an agreement should be welcomed instead of feared. At a press conference on April 30, the president stressed that without the presence of foreign capital and technology, growth for Iran will be very difficult. Rouhani is continuing the public debate he began January 4, and arguing that Iran’s foreign and economic policies should prioritize enriching the state over preserving old ways of doing business and funding ideologically-driven adventures abroad. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and their deep networks of former personnel within the state economy remain nervous about what opening to the West will mean for their interests. And Rouhani knows it.
As Tehran prepares for a culture war: Old guard (pun intended) corrupt industrialists and bankers are not the only Iranians afraid of the impact of an agreement with the P5+1. On April 26, Iran hosted its annual Law Enforcement Force summit in Tehran, serving up a buffet of paranoias about Western influence and subversion. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei exhorted the country’s internal security forces to build a more secure environment in the state. Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani called for a review of law enforcement strategy to better cope with and deter “soft” threats (cultural, ideological, and political) from foreign powers. Even IRGC Navy Commander Ali Fadavi said Iran must prove it can defeat the American cultural invasion.
Are diplomatic resolutions in Syria and Yemen now possible? Part of Iran’s incentive to negotiate a nuclear deal was to better position itself in the growing sectarian and regional conflicts. Iran is now facing the second order effects of its rivals improving their coordination against Tehran and its allies, spurred on by their fears of a looming deal and a subsequent shift in US policy in the region. In Syria, renewed cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Turkey has invigorated Islamist rebels. These forces pose a greater threat to President Bashar al-Assad’s position than at any time in the past two years. These shifts on the battlefield are triggering the first indications that Iran, along with Russia, may be looking for a diplomatic way out of the Syrian quagmire.
Saudi Arabia, with US assistance, is making it even more difficult for Iran to get arms to al Houthi fighters in Yemen. The Saudi campaign may not be achieving its goals to force back the al Houthis and to bring about a political resolution, but it is slowing the rebels down. The Kingdom has reportedly begun inserting trained Yemeni expatriate forces to help liberate Aden and Egypt renewed its commitment to the Saudi fight for another ninety days. A political or military “victory” in Yemen is not on the horizon for Iran any time soon.
J. Matthew McInnis is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. This report was produced in cooperation with the Iran Team of the Critical Threats Project. It analyzes the most important Iran news events of the past week and provides an outlook of the regime’s strategic calculus.
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