A midnight massacre of 11 slumbering soldiers by leftist guerrillas in the Colombian province of Cauca on April 14 appears to have exhausted the country’s patience with the three-year peace process that is the cornerstone of President Juan Manuel Santos’s second term. In light of a poll released this week, Santos must now choose between salvaging the three-year-old peace process and repairing his own credibility.
According to a poll taken from April 23 to 26 by pollster Ipsos, 69% of Colombians are “pessimistic” that the talks can produce an agreement that ends the 50-year-old war with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC). Ninety-three percent of respondents have a negative view of the FARC, up three points since the Cauca attack.
Only 27% believe the negotiations should be ended immediately, while 64% believe they should continue under time limits. Although that might be seen as a glimmer of hope for backers of the peace talks, great majorities reject the FARC’s essential demands. For example, a greater percentage than ever (79%) rejects the FARC’s participation in the political process, and 89% believe that FARC leaders should serve prison sentences to “pay for their crimes.”
After the Cauca massacre, Santos was confronted by hecklers and demonstrators who denounced the FARC attacks and the peace process. He has vowed to impose a deadline on the negotiations, which already have dragged on far longer than he promised when the process was launched in September 2012. However, Santos has not made a public statement on this subject for several weeks.
The Ipsos polling data give Santos a lot to think about in pondering his next move. Sixty-seven percent of those polled described the economic situation as “bad” or “very bad.” Seventy-seven percent of those interviewed believe that Colombia is on the wrong track—the lowest figure since his administration grappled with an agriculture strike in 2013. Moreover, about a third of respondents believe that conditions will worsen in the next six months.
Last June, President Santos overcame flagging popularity precisely by touting his historic bid for peace. Under the banner, “We want peace,” his supporters rallied to win Santos a second four-year team. Today, his personal favorability rating has plummeted back to 29%, matching the lowest point of his 57 months in office. Worse yet, Colombians disapprove of the job Santos is doing as president by a 72-to-25% margin. The peace process—which Santos invoked to win reelection less than a year ago—is now a clear political liability.
By an 81-to-19% margin, Colombians said that Santos thus far has not kept the promises he made to win a second term. On key economic and social issues, Santos receives even lower marks than his handling of the peace process. Those polled disapproved of his management of unemployment, health, security, and justice by more than 3-to-1 ratios.
Santos has been a stubborn advocate for the peace process, and Colombians continue to favor the principle of a negotiated end to the war. However, the people now harbor grave doubts about the peace process and Santos’ handling of the nation’s security and prosperity. The people want peace, but they clearly do not trust Santos to get it for them.
In light of this deep popular skepticism, Santos does not have the credibility to salvage the peace talks. It remains to be seen whether he can save his presidency.
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