Friday morning, Gallup released the results of a survey showing that more Americans call themselves pro-choice than pro-life by 50 to 44 percent. Gallup noted that this time was the first time since 2008 that the pro-choice label had a statistically significant lead over the pro-life one. Several other recent Gallup releases show significant movement in a more liberal direction over the past few years on the moral acceptability of certain kinds of behaviors. Other recent polls show that around 60 percent of Americans support gay marriage, an all-time high. And a slew of polls show growing support for legalization of marijuana. In addition, the mid-May release of the Pew Religious Landscape survey showed the number of “unaffiliated” growing sharply. Has the tide turned in favor of traditionally liberal stances on social issues and religious beliefs? Is there more to the story?
There is no question that Americans are moving in a more liberal direction on some key social issues. Gallup’s release showed that since the early 2000s, when Gallup first asked many of the questions, Americans have moved in the direction of moral acceptability by more than 5 percentage points on 9 of the 16 issues examined: gay and lesbian relations (23 points), having a baby outside of marriage (16), sex between an unmarried man and woman (15), divorce (12 points), medical research using stem cells (12), polygamy (9), cloning humans (8), doctor assisted suicide (7), and suicide (6). Even though there has been movement in terms of the acceptability of polygamy, cloning humans, and suicide, these behaviors are supported by fewer than 20 percent of those surveyed. The poll also showed less acceptance of the death penalty and medical testing on animals, which reflects movement in a more liberal direction as well.
Let’s look at one issue in particular in this series to better understand the extent to which the needle is moving in the liberal direction. Gallup noted that most of the movement on out-of-wedlock birth came from self-described social liberals and moderates. Conservatives moved hardly at all. In its release last year, the organization reported significant movement among Democrats over time on out-of-wedlock birth, while Republicans remained pretty much in place. Other surveys show that Americans believe it is better for children to be raised in two-parent families. In an Associated Press survey from 2013, 64 percent said more single women having children without a partner to help was a bad thing for society. Fifty-one percent of never-married women with children gave that response, and a third said it made no difference. When asked by Pew in 2010 whether they agreed or disagreed with someone who says a child needs a home with both a father and a mother to grow up happily, 61 percent said they tended to agree, while 36 percent tended to disagree. When that question was asked for the first time in 1982, the responses were 62 and 35 percent, respectively. Americans are more accepting of out-of-wedlock birth, but they don’t believe it is an intrinsic good.
Public opinion on the perennial hot button of abortion is also more nuanced. While Gallup recorded sharp movement on many issues in its moral acceptability series, it saw little movement on abortion. In 2015, 45 percent said it was morally acceptable; in 2001, 42 percent gave that response, suggesting little movement in the liberal direction. Yet the pro-choice label in their latest poll gained ground. Although Americans remain reluctant to endorse abortion, their growing identification as pro-choice hints at the importance they also give to personal choice. Gallup notes that movement in the pro-choice direction has been driven by a Democratic surge since 2012.
Religious attitudes seem to be shifting in a more traditionally liberal direction as well. As Pew pointed out in its massive Religious Landscape study, the number of unaffiliated (presumably more liberal individuals) rose from 16.1 percent in 2007 to 22.8 percent in 2014. The unaffiliated are now second in size to evangelical Protestants among major religious groups. Yet the share of self-identified atheists among the unaffiliated remains small, having risen from only 1.6 percent to 3.1 percent, while agnostics have grown from 2.4 to 4.0 percent. By contrast, the evangelical share of the population decreased, though minimally, from a larger 26.3 percent of the population to 25.4.
Also interesting, although we have no recent updates in the Roper Center’s poll archive, are figures about self-described ideology. In Gallup’s October 2014 survey, 40 percent described themselves as conservative and 24 percent liberal. In 1992, 36 percent called themselves conservatives and 17 percent liberal. The results from a November 2014 CBS survey were 35 percent conservative and 28 percent liberal. In 1976, 28 percent described themselves as conservative and 23 percent as liberal. So, the share of both groups rose in both polls. While Gallup reported that liberals had caught up to conservatives when people are asked about their views on social issues (31 percent now identify as liberals and 31 percent as conservatives), the organization also reported that people are much more likely to identify as conservatives than liberals on economic issues (39 to 19 percent).
So the country is generally moving in a more liberal direction socially. But it remains to be seen whether this movement will carry over to economic issues or to overall identification. Neither liberals nor conservatives can claim victory yet.
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