Midterm elections in Mexico on June 7 may reaffirm the ruling party’s hold on power, but may not produce new political momentum for Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto as he struggles to salvage his program of economic modernization and to quell persistent outbreaks of narco-related violence.
Voters will elect all of the 500 members the federal Chamber of Deputies, 9 of 31 governors, 16 delegates of the Federal District, and 640 state legislators. These elections will serve to measure the strength of Peña Nieto’s Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the political appeal of the opposition, made up mostly of the conservative National Action Party (PAN) and the leftist Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). It also will gauge the viability of the new National Regeneration Movement (Morena), founded by two-time leftist presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, who launched this party to challenge the PRD.
Two national polls taken last month gave the PRI’s congressional slate about 32 percent of the vote, with the PAN trailing by 8 points. The PRD and Morena claimed about 13 and 10 percent of the expected congressional vote, respectively. These results suggest that the PRI should hold on to a plurality in the Chamber of Deputies, even if it loses a handful of seats.
Beyond the political balance of power at the federal level, the results in the state elections could determine the intensity of local efforts to confront organized crime, which continues to produce outbreaks of violence in virtually every corner of country. There are gubernatorial contests in the states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Nuevo León, Sonora, Campeche, Colima, San Luís Potosí, Querétaro, and Baja California Sur. Polls last month found the PRI candidates leading or tied in every state but Baja California, where the PAN holds a 10-point advantage.
As a reminder of the security crisis confronting the country, violence committed by criminal organizations continues to impact the electoral process. Indeed, candidates run a physical risk in campaigning for office. For example, “more than a dozen candidates have been killed, kidnapped, or threatened across Mexico,” as reported by International Business Times.
For Peña Nieto, the predicted results will do very little to restore the momentum behind his ambitious agenda of economic and social reforms—including modernization of the critical energy sector. Although his party will retain its edge in the Congress, it does not appear that the midterm results will give him momentum to bring together all the political forces in the country as he did with the successful “Pact for Mexico” at the beginning of his presidency. The president’s failing popularity makes him a weak leader, and mixed electoral results will do little to invigorate his presidency as Mexicans look to replace him in 2018.
Assuming the PRI can cobble together a working majority in the Congress through alliances with smaller parties, it will be able maintain its control over the budget for the next three years. In a country where the decline in oil prices and less demand for products from the United States have caused declining growth and revenues, control over fiscal policy is crucial for the ruling party.
Under the best of circumstances, the economic and security challenges will not be easy for Mexico in the second half of Peña Nieto’s administration. Unfortunately for the president, the upcoming elections apparently will not produce the kind of political momentum that he needs to consolidate his legacy.
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