Sometime between now and the Republican nomination, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will enjoy a rally in the polls — nationally, and maybe in New Hampshire.
Maybe the first debates will provide the Christie boom. Maybe he’ll master the town halls in the Granite State. There’s also a decent chance the boom will be fleeting. But if you write off Christie after his fall from front-runner status in 2013, you’re making a mistake.
By no definition is Chris Christie the current Republican front-runner. He hasn’t led in a poll since last July. His RealClearPolitics polling average puts him in 7th place.
But the pieces are in place for a Christie surge.
Most obvious, to anyone who’s watched Christie speak, are his personality and speaking style. When it comes to stage presence, Marco Rubio is the only 2016 Republican who beats Christie. While Rubio provides soaring, moving rhetoric, Christie provides something possibly more attractive to the primary electorate: a supreme confidence that suggests aptitude and a bit of pugnacity.
At the recent GOP cattle call — the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in Oklahoma City—Christie was probably the most impressive speaker. He framed his record in New Jersey as something of a turnaround story for a troubled state. He bragged about his battles with public sector unions. He cast himself in the same mold as Scott Walker — a candidate “who knows how to fight, and knows how to win.”
This will play well in New Hampshire town halls.
Christie in Oklahoma City attacked President Obama more forcefully than any other candidate. He has to, because so many conservatives hold in their mind the image of Christie hugging Obama after tropical storm Sandy, and they believe that hug helped Obama win re-election in 2012. Christie will spend the next few months un-hugging Obama. You can even expect him to do so in the debates.
Christie also focused on how he would beat Hillary Clinton, contrasting his straight-talking manner to her dishonest, opaque, unprincipled, slippery and evasive ways.
Conservative attendees in Oklahoma City were impressed and pleasantly surprised by a man they had previously brushed off as a moderate Republican in name only.
In private, he’s just as compelling. Regularly, Republican donors emerge from small chats with Christie impressed by the governor’s intelligence, energy and political savvy. And this may be part of his most important asset: access to money.
Christie is the only presidential candidate (besides George Pataki) from the northeast, which is where the money is. In his 2009 and 2013 campaigns, Christie raked in the Wall Street cash. If you’re a Republican on Wall Street, look around: Christie is the only statewide elected official of your party in the entire Tri-State area.
Sheldon Adelson, the top Republican donor last election, says “I like Governor Christie,” and has provided free flights to Christie. Paul Singer, the active Republican donor, has hosted fundraisers for two Republicans this cycle: Christie and Jeb Bush.
The comparison to Bush is one of the biggest reasons to expect a Christie surge. Bush and Christie both occupy the establishment region of the party. This side of the party provided much of Mitt Romney’s support four years ago. Currently this wing favors Bush over Christie, judging by polls.
But watch Bush on the campaign trail, and he doesn’t come across as a strong candidate. Nobody looked worse in Oklahoma City than Jeb. It almost seemed as if Jeb didn’t want to be running. Similarly, someone who took the race seriously would probably prepare for a question about the Iraq War — especially if that candidate’s brother had launched the war. But Jeb clearly had not prepared for that question before Fox News’ Megyn Kelly asked it.
Jeb’s 15 percent nationally and double digits in New Hampshire are not a sign of strong support, but of name recognition. As the campaign heats up, expect that figure to drop. The Jeb backers will scatter amidst this crowded field, but Christie will likely be the biggest beneficiary of Jeb’s collapse.
All these factors point toward a Christie surge, following some more town halls and the first debates.
A word of caution for Christie: If 2012 taught us anything, it’s that surges can be brief, and that they expose the surging candidate to the harsh light of a curious political press — just ask Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich. In that glaring light, Christie has plenty of blemishes that will show.
But at least Christie isn’t likely to spend the rest of the campaign in the shadows.
Timothy P. Carney, The Washington Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at tcarney@washingtonexaminer.com. His column appears Sunday and Wednesday on washingtonexaminer.com.
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