Another crisis with Iran at sea appears to be over for now. On May 13 Iran insisted a cargo ship chartered by the Iranian Red Crescent Society would travel directly to Yemen and would not submit to inspection by the Saudis or anyone else. On May 21, however, the ship docked in Djibouti for UN inspections. If Tehran had not relented to US and UN demands, a serious confrontation could have ensued with the United States or Saudi Arabia. Although this shipment was genuinely humanitarian, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has previously disguised sophisticated weaponry as ‘humanitarian aid’.
This week’s drama follows a series of alarming Iranian naval actions since the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen began on March 26. First, the IRGC Navy attempted to deliver advanced weapons—including surface-to-air missiles on a cargo ship flotilla—to the al Houthis before turning back on April 24. On April 24, the IRGC Navy tailed the commercial ship Maersk Kensington as it went through the Strait of Hormuz. On April 28, the IRGC Navy detained the Maersk Tigris in the strait and held it captive for nine days before settling an alleged outstanding legal claim with Maersk, the Dansk shipping conglomerate.
Then on May 14, five IRGC Navy speedboats fired warning shots at a Singaporean-flagged oil tanker the Alpine Eternity (managed by the Norwegian firm Transpetrol) in international waters in the Persian Gulf and ordered it to stop. When the Alpine Eternity’s captain refused, the IRGC Navy fired directly on the ship. The ship sustained no serious damage from the attack and made it safely into the UAE port of Jebel Ali. The IRGC Navy ceased pursuit once the Alpine Eternity reached UAE territorial waters. Iranian authorities later claimed the ship had caused $300 million in damages when it hit an Iranian oilrig in March.
Is Iran becoming dangerously more aggressive on the water? Here is how I would frame it:
A certain level of IRGC Navy harassment in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf has been the norm since the Tanker War during Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s. Iranian small boats often accost US Navy and other Western military ships, and the IRGC will occasionally board or redirect commercial as they pass through Iranian claimed waters, particularly during IRGC exercises in the Strait of Hormuz. IRGC naval aggression spikes periodically, especially when Iran feels under pressure. As I’ve mentioned before, between the nuclear talks and the Saudi campaign in Yemen, Iran feels forced to take deterrent military action.
As my previous work will attest, IRGC actions are not the work of rogue actors. This recent behavior was blessed at the top. We should assume IRGC Commander Mohammad Ali Jafari and IRGC Naval Commander Ali Fadavi have conferred with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to press the United States and Saudi Arabia by attempting to increase support to the al Houthis and reminding the world of their ability to disrupt commerce in the Persian Gulf. Given the recent attack patterns against commercial shipping, the IRGC may also be working off an approved list of companies or vessels with which Tehran has existing grievances. Plausible excuses are always nice when you need to engage potentially risky behavior to make a larger statement.
We should also remember this kind of behavior is part of broader IRGC strategy and doctrine. Iran has long understood its naval inferiority compared to the United States, and consequently built a suite of capabilities—armed swarming small boats, anti-ship cruise missiles, advanced mines, and submarines—to target our weaknesses, frustrate our operations, and disrupt commerce and navigation in the Gulf if needed. The IRGC, from time to time, will remind the United States and other regional powers of their ability to close the Strait and inflict grievous harm on enemy naval forces.
So what is motivating the IRGC right now? They are attempting to deter the United States, retaliate against Saudi operations in Yemen, and test both Washington’s and Riyadh’s redlines in the growing regional contest.
Iran’s actions carry huge risks of miscalculation. But the IRGC has also been clear it does want to escalate into a full crisis. The United States should remember Iran is still very afraid of our military power. They will back down…as long as we keep stepping up.
Follow AEIdeas on Twitter at @AEIdeas.
from AEI » Latest Content http://ift.tt/1Gu1Z6e
0 التعليقات:
Post a Comment