In yesterday’s election, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) failed to win a majority. Optimists see this as a victory for Turkish democracy. The Turkish electorate really did tell their leader that the sultan wears no clothes.
I hate to be the one to throw cold water on the results, though, but the results may not necessarily translate into a government. There are many scenarios out there, some of which I explain here, in which coalition negotiations gridlock and lead to new elections where, once again, anything can happen.
At the same time, even if a new government forms, policymakers must assess whether too much damage has already been done: Erdoğan has staffed the bureaucracy with his cronies, and the security forces with his Brown Shirts. His terror-sponsoring Syria policy is run through the intelligence service which does not answer to parliament. Finally, a decade of anti-American incitement has already taken its toll; Turkey on a popular level is among the world’s most anti-American countries. It’s much harder to root out that intellectual corruption than install it.
So, were yesterday’s elections important? Yes. They were a good start, but they may yet still be just a speedbump on Erdoğan’s road to dictatorship.
from AEI » Latest Content http://ift.tt/1RYXNPu
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