The 2015 American Football Conference championship exploded with controversy when the New England Patriots were accused of deflating footballs prior to the start of their game against the Indianapolis Colts. As a result, the National Football League and its lawyers published a report, known as the Wells Report, which brought about penalty charges against the Patriots and quarterback Tom Brady. However, a new AEI report, by scholars and economists Kevin Hassett and Stan Veuger, finds the Wells report’s statistical analysis was flawed.
Among the report’s key points:
• Replication of the reports’ analysis reveals that it relies on an unorthodox statistical procedure at odds with the methodology the report describes.
• The report focuses narrowly on the difference between the Colts and Patriots pressure drops. This difference can be caused either by the pressure in the Patriots balls dropping below their expected value or by the pressure in the Colts balls rising above their expected value, with the latter of these scenarios being more likely based on the absolute pressure measurements.
• The difference of the pressure in the Patriots balls can be explained by the fact that sufficient time may have passed between halftime testing of the two teams’ balls for the Colts balls to warm significantly, effectively inflating them.
Read the full report, “On the Wells Report.”
Read their op-ed in the New York Times, “Deflating ‘Deflategate.'”
For an interview with Hassett or Veuger, please contact AEI media services at mediaservices@aei.org or 202.862.5829.
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