The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) recently released 2013-14 data on school safety and discipline at public schools and the numbers seem to indicate positive changes. In brief, 65% of schools reported violent incidents (mostly fights without a weapon, or threats thereof) at an annual rate of 16 incidents per 1,000 students. Only 13% reported serious violent incidents (think weapons and worse) at a rate of one incident per 2,000 students.
Examining change over time in these data shows just how good this news is. Compared to school safety and discipline data published from 2009-10, violent incidents in 2013-14 were down more than a third, (from 1.18M to 0.76M) and their rates decreased as well (from 25 per 1,000 students down to 16). The estimates for serious violent incidents dropped by a whopping 50%. And the National Center for Education Statistics’ blog shows huge drops in other areas such as harassment, racial tensions and bullying.
There are three things worth noting about this report.
First, these most recent declines seem incredible, as in a bit too big to be credible. NCES previously reported rates of violent incidents dropping by 20% from 1999-2000 and 2009-10, and are now reporting drops of almost 40% over the next four years. Such outsized drops in serious violent incidents and other discipline problems are also only visible in the most recent data. Beyond the sheer size of these recent drops, methodological differences between this report and earlier surveys raise comparability issues. As the Washington Post noted, shifts from paper to computer based surveys, different survey administrators, and different sample sizes may have some impact on the findings. The fact that four years passed between these and the last comparable results—as opposed to the typical two years— does not make gauging school safety any easier. The next comparable NCES data, due out in 2017, may or may not bear out these results. Until then, these recent drops seem too big and any conclusions should be made cautiously.
Second, while they might seem too good to be true, these results are still cause for optimism because they reinforce the existing downtrend in safety issues. Other data also suggests school safety and discipline is improving. For example, Department of Justice data, also displayed on the NCES blog, shows that in 2013, the percentage of students bullied at school was at its lowest point since 2005, and well below the level in 2009. Doubts and methodological issues aside and even if they are overstated, these results do suggest continued improvement in school safety and discipline.
Lastly, data on school safety, and school climate more generally, are important and don’t receive enough attention, especially next to other metrics like test scores. Kids are in school for a huge part of their young lives, and making sure their schools have a safe and hospitable climate is both a moral imperative and a first step in delivering a high-quality education. Especially in low-performing schools with the most vulnerable students, changing school climates may be the first front for improving student outcomes. Where we fail to deliver a reasonable school climate, focusing on dollars, standards, test scores, and other more commonly-reported education metrics won’t get students anywhere.
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