Speaking about Iran’s nuclear program last month in an interview intended to reassure Israelis, President Barack Obama said that “a military solution will not fix it, even if the United States participates.” Such denigrations of the deterrent power of force have long been noticed in Iran. In a speech last July, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, gloated: “There are very few people in today’s world who take these military threats seriously.” And why should they? The U.S. administration is engaged in sensitive negotiations while systematically depriving itself of leverage.
Military force may not be the ideal solution to the Iran nuclear issue, but it is an indispensable backdrop to viable diplomacy. By far the most effective agreement ever negotiated with Iran came in 2003, when the Islamic Republic agreed to suspend all its nuclear activities. The Europeans spearheaded the talks, but American power fortified their mandate. In the intervening decade, Iranian officials–including President Hasan Rouhani, according to his memoir–noted the concern that Iran had about George W. Bush at the height of his power. The fear of being the target of American retribution led Iran to dispense with its program. After that fear dissipated in 2005, Iran resumed its nuclear activities.
Contrast that with today: In contravention of sound strategy, the Obama team has been eager for negotiations while denigrating its coercive power. It is a staple of the administration’s rhetoric that sanctions only led to massive accumulation of centrifuges by Iran. This point is often noted by President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry. Paradoxically, it is a talking point put forth by Iran’s foreign minister, Javad Zarif, a diplomat skilled at seducing. Had Iranians sensed that the U.S. was prepared to enforce its “red lines” with force, then they may have been less inclined to dismiss American mandates and the International Atomic Energy Agency demands for access to atomic sites. The question now is whether anything can be done to restore the luster of the military option and convince the Islamic Republic that it may pay for nuclear intransigence.
The full text of this article will be posted on Monday, June 15.
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