Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al Abadi’s visit to Tehran last week was quite the diplomatic show. Along with meetings with President Hassan Rouhani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) Ali Shamkani, and prominent Assembly of Experts member Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, Abadi had a well-publicized audience with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Their number one agenda item was, unsurprisingly, the flagging effort against ISIS. Khamenei promised Iran will help root out terrorists in Iraq and drilled home two notable themes.
First, the Supreme Leader wanted to make one thing clear: Iran is with you and the Americans are not. Khamenei argued (as he has before) that the United States is supporting ISIS in order to divide Iraq and reassert American power in the region.
We should stand up against this [US] plot and fitna [sedition] in an intelligent and careful way and we should not allow the unity of Shias, Sunnis, Kurds, and Arabs to be undermined in your country.
Second, Khamenei gave a strong defense of the “popular forces”, or the Shia militias that have been at the forefront of war with ISIS in Iraq. He called them “a reliable source of support” whose importance “extends beyond the arena of war.” Khamenei linked US concerns about the presence of Iranian-supported militias to Iraq’s colonial history:
The past experiences of the Iraqi people regarding English colonialism and their present experience with American imperialism shows that the ill-wishers of the people of Iraq have never welcomed the emergence of a great popular force on the scene. Therefore, this popular investment should be protected.
Tehran likely fears that if and when the ISIS threat recedes leaders in Baghdad (encouraged by Western governments), it will push to demobilize and reintegrate the Shia militias and constrain Iranian proxy forces. A good deal of Iran’s hard-earned influence inside the Iraqi security structure could be at risk. Khamenei needed to remind Abadi why these groups are so good for him to keep around.
The fight against ISIS has not been going particularly well, though. As much as the Iraqi Security Forces and the US-led support campaign are seen as woefully insufficient for the fight, the Iranian-backed groups and other Shia militias do not seem up to the task either. The Iranian leadership understands that Abadi is under pressure to allow greater US and allied participation, but a larger American profile in Iraq is one of the last things the Supreme Leader and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps wants to see.
SNCS Secretary Shamkhani went straight after the assumptions Iran believes US leaders are using to justify an expansion of operations. He implied in his meeting with Abadi that Western officials were trying to prolong the crisis by claiming it would take five to seven years to defeat ISIS.
Due to the high capability and extreme potential of Iraq, security can be fully restored to the country within a short span of time following the elimination of the terrorist groups.
For Shamkhani, however, long-term security in Iraq requires expanded links with Iran in the “political economic, cultural and security domains.” You will rarely get a more blunt expression of Tehran’s long-term paternalistic (or is it hegemonic?) vision for Iraq.
Finally, on the nuclear front, Supreme Leader Khamenei made another major televised speech on June 23 reiterating not only his old redlines—immediate sanctions relief, no military site inspections, and no interviews with nuclear scientists—but also stating that Iran will not accept a “long-term limitation [on enrichment] of 10-12 years;” and that there will be no limitations “on [nuclear] research, development, and construction” during the period in which enrichment is restricted. Khamenei’s flexibility on redlines is well established, but these new ones go to the heart of the potential nuclear deal. Most likely the Supreme Leader’s comments are fodder for domestic audiences or more brinkmanship to get the best agreement possible. This could indicate the talks are hitting real obstacles, though, and an extension past the June 30 deadline is even more likely.
But like Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said this week, if the nuclear talks do not produce a final deal, “it won’t be the end of the world.” Senators Lindsey Graham and Bob Corker would likely agree with Zarif on this point. Failing to conclude the type of nuclear deal Khamenei describes could be a very good outcome indeed.
J. Matthew McInnis is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. This report was produced in cooperation with the Iran Team of the Critical Threats Project. It analyzes the most important Iran news events of the past week and provides an outlook of the regime’s strategic calculus.
from AEI » Latest Content http://ift.tt/1NaU0uX
0 التعليقات:
Post a Comment