Mexico’s ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) barely held on to a working majority in the 500-member lower house of Congress, according to preliminary results of Sunday’s national elections. And, history was made with the election of the first independent gubernatorial candidate; Jaime Rodriguez Calderón, known as “The Bronco,” will govern the northern state of Nuevo Leon, an industrial hub whose $81 billion economy makes it the second richest in the country. The elections represent a mixed bag for the PRI; although the PRI-led coalition will be able to manage the budget and fundamental national policies, the outcome does not give President Enrique Peña Nieto the political momentum he needs to salvage his ambitious reform agenda.
According to exit polls, the PRI won about 30% of the vote and is believed to have won at least five of the nine governorships in play. The conservative National Action Party (PAN), which garnered about 22%, will continue to be the second political force, followed by a left that has been divided in four parties. One of these parties is the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), which was founded by two-time presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and who now leads the fourth largest political party in the country.
In addition to the Congressional results, the 40 million Mexicans who turned out elected 9 of 31 governors, 16 delegates of the Federal District, and 640 state legislators. The PRI’s losses may reflect Peña Nieto’s plummeting approval ratings, as well as national anxiety over brazen violence, impunity, and corruption that continue to bedevil the country.
Although voting was not marred by widespread violence, the road to June 7th provided a disturbing picture of the situation in Mexico in terms of security and governability. During the campaign period, eight candidates were murdered and there were 70 episodes of kidnapping, assaults and attacks on government facilities. Also, since June 1, “teachers” of the Coordinadora Nacional de Trabajadores de la Educación (CNTE) started a boycott of the elections in 23 cities in the states of Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas and Veracruz. In response to the CNTE threat, last Thursday the federal government deployed Federal Police, the Army and the Navy to the affected states. While the operation was successful on the day of the election, violence remains a threat, especially until the vote tally is finished.
In the second half of his six-year term, Peña Nieto will have to wrestle with the relentless narco-related violence that has impacted virtually every corner of the country. In the meantime, the PRI bosses may begin to treat the president as a lame duck, flexing their political muscle independently of the corruption-ridden president and preparing to ensure election of his successor. The PAN has clearly lost the momentum since it won back-to-back presidential elections in 2000, and the party will need new leadership to muster an effective opposition for years to come. Meanwhile, the left is clearly split by the stubborn activism of López Obrador.
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