Key Points
- The reported number of homeless individuals sleeping on US streets has been declining rapidly, with a 32 percent drop since 2007.
- Homelessness numbers do not tell the whole story, as a majority of the decline can likely be attributed to inaccurate counts and, potentially, efforts undertaken by cities to criminalize homelessness.
- It is too soon to declare that we know what works in ending homelessness, but this should not be our only goal. Our policies should be judged based on how well they help people reconnect to society and achieve their full potential.
The number of homeless individuals sleeping on the streets in the United States has been declining rapidly, according to annual counts conducted since 2007. This has caused some to celebrate that policies geared toward ending homelessness are working. However, this paper shows that drastic changes in street counts in particular communities account for the majority of the national reduction, suggesting that miscounting may be playing a major role. An alternative explanation for large count changes is that increasing homeless criminalization measures are leading more of the homeless to stay out of sight. Another red flag is that sheltered homeless counts, which are much more reliable than street counts, have been remaining steady. This is true not just among families—who rarely sleep on the streets—but also among individuals—who are more likely to transition between the streets and shelters. Meanwhile, substantial expansion of permanent supportive housing appears to play only a minor role in the national street count reduction, although the possibility that altered homeless migration patterns are partially masking its effect cannot be ruled out. Ultimately, the evidence suggests that it is too soon to declare that we know what works in ending homelessness.
Some of the most visibly poor people in society are the homeless who sleep on our streets. According to national data, however, they are disappearing. Since national efforts to consistently count the homeless began in 2007, counts of the street homeless have fallen by 32 percent, a seemingly impressive feat in the midst of a historic recession and slow economic recovery. The progress has been celebrated perhaps no more than by the US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), the largest federal contributor to homeless assistance programs. According to HUD Secretary Julian Castro (Sullivan 2014):
As a nation, we are successfully reducing homelessness in this country, especially for those who have been living on our streets as a way of life. There is still a tremendous amount of work ahead of us but it’s clear our strategy is working and we’re going to push forward till we end homelessness as we’ve come to know it.
But are the homeless truly disappearing? Based on detailed analysis of homeless count data, this paper concludes that much of the reported decline is likely artificial. A large majority of the decline in street homelessness is due to large swings in street counts in particular communities. This could indicate miscounting, or potentially, an increase in homeless criminalization (measures that forbid behaviors like sitting or lying in public spaces). Another red flag is that the number of homeless individuals in shelters has actually slightly increased during the same period; this population is much easier to count than those sleeping on the streets. Finally, a massive increase in permanent supportive housing (PSH)—in which tenants are no longer defined as homeless—appears to play only a minor role in the national reduction in street homelessness, although altered migration patterns could be partially masking its effect. Given that the reported national street count reduction makes up 113 percent of the reduction in total homelessness since 2007, this paper calls into question the nation’s progress in curtailing homelessness altogether.
Before proceeding to the analysis, it is important to note that these results tell us little about whether certain policies are good or bad. Making it illegal to lie down in public areas may decrease street homeless counts, but that is not necessarily good for the people who must find refuge elsewhere. And how much PSH reduces street homelessness in the long run tells us little about how it affects the lives of people who receive it. It is also important to note that the results do not identify causal factors of street homelessness, so, for example, it is possible that street homeless populations would have been significantly higher in the absence of rapid expansion of PSH.
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