Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani replies to a question during a news conference on the sidelines of the 69th United Nations General Assembly at United Nations Headquarters in New York September 26, 2014. REUTERS/Adrees Latif
Speaking on Iranian television on Sunday, July 26, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani sounded nothing like the moderate so many Western officials would like to see. This should not surprise: he has previously bragged about Iran’s insincerity and has also described a doctrine of surprise in which he would lull America into complacency with dialogue and then deliver a knock-out blow. While some Western news agencies picked up his call for “officials and politicians of the US Government to make a decision and embark on housecleaning in your political room,” his actual speech was much more illustrative.
At any rate, here are some excerpts from an Open Source Center translation:
- The diplomats, your brave and heroic children, gained a historic victory over the six big and powerful countries of the world. Who would have thought that you, the great nation, with your resistance would make the world powers, who had said Iran must not have nuclear energy, kneel in front of Iran? What is more important than nuclear energy is the energy of the great Iranian nation. With your bravery, endless energy, and resistance, you did something that made the big world power, that is America, to confess today that Iran is not giving in. [People cheer] [You made] the US Secretary of State say clearly at the US Senate: Do not threaten Iranians.
- The Iranian nation not only protects its Kordestan [province], it also protects Baghdad and Irbil. If it was not for the Iranian Government, the Islamic Republic establishment, and the resistant and brave people of Iran, Baghdad and Irbil would have fallen into the hands of terrorists. But the Iranian nation is the supporter of all oppressed nations. As we defend Sanandaj, our nation will defend Dohuk, Irbil, and Al-Sulaymaniyah and any other oppressed land that faces aggression in the region.
A couple thoughts: in the Middle East, weakness is not a virtue and it seldom brings peace. But Rouhani depicts Secretary of State John Kerry as a supplicant and, indeed, his negotiation track record suggests that’s not far off from the truth. Regardless, the lesson Rouhani—the regime’s “Mr. Fix-It”—has taken is that defiance pays dividends. Iran has remained an unrepentant sponsor of terrorism. Indeed, it and its proxies have arguably killed more Americans than Al Qaeda (and it assisted Al Qaeda in the run-up to 9/11). In just the last decade, it has killed or supported regimes which have killed hundreds of thousands of people across the Middle East from Yemen to Syria to Lebanon to Iraq. And, as for the nuclear file, the notion that the world unfairly picked on Iran is nonsense. The International Atomic Energy Agency bent over backwards for years to give Iran an out before sending the Iranian nuclear file to the UN Security Council when Iran was repeatedly caught in violation of agreements. So — be it with regard to terrorism or nuclear proliferation — Rouhani’s conclusion? Obstinacy and denial pays off. And, alas, Kerry has affirmed Rouhani’s logic.
Then, there’s the issue of Iranian influence in Iraq. American policymakers understand that there is a high degree of Iranian influence in predominantly Shi‘ite southern Iraq and Baghdad, but seem to be blind to the fact that Iranian influence is as great if not greater in Iraqi Kurdistan. It almost seems that if the Iraqi Kurds entertain congressmen and provide a lavish banquet, they’ll be willing to buy the fiction that the Kurdistan Regional Government truly is in the American camp. The reality is that even if the Kurds wished to be, their own survival instinct tempers a willingness to trust Washington. Rouhani, of course, is now cocky enough coming off what was truly a huge diplomatic victory for Iran and defeat of the United States to openly acknowledge the reality that Kurdistan—Erbil as well as Baghdad—is now firmly within Iran’s sphere of influence.
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