I’m a critic of many aspects of the polling business these days. To take just one of my pet peeves, dozens of questions are being asked about which presidential candidate will win in 2016, although we know that polls have little predictive value at this early stage of the campaign. Then there are polls used as the standard for participation in debates. Polls are not designed for this purpose, especially when you have a multicandidate field where many candidates are bunched closely together. Finally, pollsters’ obsession with whatever is on the front pages crowds out valuable polling on less exciting subjects. Many pollsters don’t have the resources to update long-running questions when they are trying so hard to stay close to the news.
Emile Turner (L) and Michael Foster play live music at Bourbon Street in New Orleans, Louisiana September 12, 2005, two weeks after Hurricane Katrina hit the city. REUTERS/Brian Snyder
These criticisms fade when a survey is done as well as the new Kaiser Family Foundation/NPR poll of greater New Orleans residents, marking the 10th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. The poll is the fourth in a series, and it sheds light on the area’s recovery and its residents’ resilience. The obstacles to the project were great. In its 2006 survey, Kaiser conducted in-person interviews because the storm had caused so much dislocation that a phone-poll was impossible. Kaiser went back into the field in 2008, when they were able to conduct half the interviews by phone. In the 2010 and 2015 surveys, they were able to use standard phone-polling methodologies.
Americans’ natural optimism shines through in the surveys. In all four of them, 70% or more were optimistic about the future of greater New Orleans. This is striking given that three-in-ten respondents in the new poll said that a family member or a close friend died as a result of the storm. Nearly six-in-ten in 2006 said the rebuilding efforts and the recovery were going in the right direction; 73 % gave that response this summer. Fifty-three percent in the new poll thought that in the event of another hurricane, the levees would hold, while 36 % said they wouldn’t. Eleven percent in 2008 said a lot of progress had been made in repairing them. In the new poll, 50 % gave that response.
When asked which institutions were most helpful to New Orleans’ recovery, residents’ top response was charities and religious organizations (83% said they had been helpful), followed by local businesses (79%), the federal government (70%), and the local New Orleans government (66%). At the bottom of the list was Louisiana’s state government. Only 46% gave it high marks.
As for the parish’s biggest problem, crime topped the list by a considerable margin. Fifty-eight percent spontaneously mentioned it, up from 36 % in 2008. When people were asked what the top priorities should be for greater New Orleans, people mentioned controlling crime and, separately, strengthening the public school system more than any other issues. A solid 54% said the increase in the number of charter schools was a good thing for New Orleans; 14% said it was a bad thing.
The poll also revealed unsurprising divisions by race and by income. While more whites said their quality of life is better now (38%) instead of worse (10%) than before Katrina, African Americans who said their quality of life has changed were split, with 26% saying better and 23% worse. It’s clear that many in the New Orleans area are struggling. Thirty-four percent of residents were very worried, and another 26% somewhat worried that they won’t have enough income to meet all of their needs.
The personal hardship is real, but so is the resilience of a community that has been through so much. As New Orleans marks the 10th anniversary of Katrina, we can expect to hear both of these storylines. The Kaiser survey tells both stories well through the opinions of the people who live them.
New Orleans street performers, August 31, 2013. Darrell Miller, Flickr.
Join us at AEI as Nat Malkus and Gerard Robinson, along with Center for American Progress’s Catherine Brown, host a conference to explore the transformation of New Orleans’s school systems post-Katrina, and what other school districts can learn. Doug Harris of Education Research Alliance at Tulane University will present research on changes in New Orleans schools, and notable scholars and education policymakers will discuss the transformation’s challenges and successes. Click here for registration and information.
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