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9/23/15

Idle threats and intercepts: Presidential diplomacy in the Obama-Xi era

Foreign Policy reports today that “administration officials are now seriously studying the option of sailing inside the 12-mile limit” of China’s artificial islands. With the story timed to coincide with Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington, the White House likely hopes it will convey seriousness of purpose to the Chinese leader, while providing leverage for President Obama to use in discussions about the South China Sea. The effort is ill conceived on both counts.

First, it seems unlikely Xi will take this seriously. Senior administration officials — notably Ashton Carter — have been talking tough for months, insisting that US ships and aircraft will sail and fly in any international waters whenever they choose. Of course, they haven’t actually done so. If the Chinese have learned they need not take Secretary of Defense Carter’s public statements seriously, they’ll likely take comments to the press from anonymous officials with a very large grain of salt.

US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter (R) and China's Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission General Fan Changlong listen to their respective national anthems at the Pentagon in Washington June 11, 2015. REUTERS/Gary Cameron. - RTX1G3SU

US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter (R) and China’s Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission General Fan Changlong listen to their respective national anthems at the Pentagon in Washington June 11, 2015. REUTERS/Gary Cameron.

Second, the United States should never threaten to exercise freedom of navigation (FON)— it should, simply, always be exercising that freedom. Using a threat to do so as leverage is to undermine freedom of the seas. If the United States were to tacitly agree to forego FON exercises in return for some Chinese commitment regarding its holdings in the South China Sea, China would learn a dangerous lesson: that freedom of the seas is not nearly as important to the United States as Washington claims, and that Washington does not actually see it as a fundamental underpinning of the global order.

Last week, two Chinese fighter jets carried out a dangerous intercept of an American reconnaissance aircraft. This despite the fact that Xi Jinping was about to depart for the United States for a summit during which he and President Obama may reach an accord governing the interactions of US and Chinese planes in Asian skies. In other words, China continues to vigorously defend what it sees as its interests, even at the risk of adding some awkwardness to presidential diplomacy. Why is the United States so hesitant to do the same?

As Xi Jinping strolls up the literal red carpet at the White House tomorrow, US naval vessels should be sailing within 12 miles of China’s artificial islands in the South China Sea and American aircraft should be flying overhead. It’s far past time the administration cease idle talk of defending freedom of the seas and instead take action to actually do so.



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