Here’s a brief preliminary reaction to the news that the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) negotiations have been successfully concluded. There will be lots of time to parse the details, but what is striking about what we know from fact sheets and initial commentary is simply that there are no surprises or wild cards.
Since the negotiations began in earnest back in 2010, there has been a drumfire of criticism from opponents claiming this was a secret deal being negotiated behind closed doors. Decisions at the end would come out of nowhere, with little time for the public to react.
Trade ministers from a dozen Pacific nations in Trans-Pacific Partnership Ministers meeting post in TPP Ministers “Family Photo” in Atlanta, Georgia October 1, 2015. Trade ministers from a dozen Pacific nations meeting in Atlanta extended talks on a sweeping trade deal. REUTERS/USTR Press Office.
Yet looking over the details as we know them at this point, it is clear that with regard to every major issue, the opponents and the proponents both had detailed insight as to just what was on the table. There were no new issues suddenly sprung at the end, and endless leaks made the process resemble a giant sieve. Sure, nobody knew exactly by what percentage Japan would open its rice, wheat, beef, pork and dairy markets, but all certainly knew the parameters being discussed.
Similarly, on patents nobody (including the negotiators) knew just how much data exclusivity protection so-called biologics would receive. We did know that what was on the table ranged from 5 to 12 years. I could go on and on, but the main point of this blog post is that, in many ways, much of the reporting on the final agreement is old news — or at least news that just confirmed the pieces of a final set of compromises long feared by opponents and long hoped for by free trade proponents.
There are individual decisions to like and dislike, and they will trigger a big public debate. But in the end, that debate will focus on the balance of the total package. The US (and the other 11 nations) must decide if, on balance, we are better off with the TPP or without it.
For those still doubtful of the good faith of US negotiators, there is also a fail-safe. The president must publish full details of the agreement over the next month, and it must withstand public scrutiny for 60 days before the president can actually sign off on it.
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