Chart via Capital Economics
You really have to dig to find much wrong with the October jobs report. The 271,000 net new jobs were 50% higher than expectations. At 5.0%, the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in seven years, as did the share of involuntary part-time workers. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4%, pushing the annual growth rate to a six-year high. Over the past year, the US economy has created 2.8 million jobs. Want more good news? Here you go: The broader U6 measure of unemployment dropped to 9.8% vs. 11.5% a year ago. The labor force participation rate stayed steady, while the employment rate ticked up. As Barclays put it,”Beyond the headline number, the rebound was in almost all parts of the labor market.”
So “Crippled America,” the title of Donald Trump’s new book, seems an overly pessimistic take on the current state of things. As does Mike Huckabee’s crack about the future being one of “charred remains.” Republicans should acknowledge the economy’s improvement, point out weaknesses — such as continued slow economic, productivity, wage growth — and offer a modern, relevant, data-driven policy agenda for the future. After all, 64% of Americans think the nation is headed in the wrong direction. Deep anxieties remain about future of work and living standards in a globalized, roboticized economy. But there is quite a bit of ground between a golden-age utopia and the zombie apocalypse. For an examination of these issues, please check out my upcoming AEI event: “The great American stagnation — or acceleration?“
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