It’s been a big week for East Asia. Earlier this week the US Navy completed its first freedom of navigation operation since 2012 in the Spratly Islands in the tension-ridden South China Sea. On Thursday, China announced that it would be reforming its One-Child Policy to allow two children per family, an effort to combat its aging population. And finally, this Sunday, China, Japan and South Korea will convene for a trilateral summit in Seoul – the first in three years. The talks resume amidst efforts to ease continued regional hostilities including heated territorial disputes and historical grievances, including the issue of comfort women, dating back to WWII. AEI scholars weigh in:
China military expert Michael Mazza on the South China Sea:
The Obama administration has, unfortunately, already taught Beijing that defending freedom of the seas is no longer automatic for the United States. That damage cannot be easily undone.
Unnamed Pentagon officials, however, have indicated that the transit was not a one-off. If that is the case, the Lassen patrol will mark the first step in demonstrating to a global audience that the United States will exercise the rights allowed it under both customary maritime law and under the United Nations Convention on the Law of Sea. Allies and adversaries alike, in all regions, must know that the United States, as Ashton Carter has put it, “will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows.”
Read more here: Destroyer in the Spratlys: Backing up tough talk in the South China Sea
Demography expert Nicholas Eberstadt on China’s new Two-Child Policy:
Beijing’s latest adjustments to population plans seem to have been prompted by economic concerns, yet these changes will have only modest demographic repercussions. Like other East Asian locales without forced population control, the average desired family size in China appears to be far below replacement. Beijing also can’t rely on immigration for demographic help. Even modest gains from the new policy will take decades to have an economic impact.
Read his full piece in the Wall Street Journal: China’s new Two-Child Policy and the fatal conceit
Former DoD official Dan Blumenthal on the upcoming trilateral summit:
A top priority for US policy is a strong trilateral alliance structure among Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo. Such an alliance would solidify Northeast Asian security by strengthening the containment and deterrence of a nuclear North Korea and pushing backing against China’s aggrandizement. South Korean leaders know that the peninsula is indefensible without Japan, just as Japanese leaders know that their security will be enhanced through cooperation with the ROK on nuclear deterrence. The pieces of a new alliance structure are in place, it will now take leadership to put it together.
Read more here: China, South Korea and Japan: What to expect from the trilateral summit
Japan expert Michael Auslin on the potential outcomes of the summit:
A trilateral approach is fine, but it is by definition going to be focused on lowest-common denominator issues. If the three leaders can agree on a free-trade zone, that would be a big move forward in tying them closer together. But there is little likelihood that any meaningful political or security agreements will emerge. For that to happen, it may well be that East Asia’s leading liberal nations – Japan and South Korea – will have to find a way to strengthen their own relationship before tackling the question of how to help ensure that China acts as a cooperative partner helping ensure Asia’s future prosperity and stability.
Read more here: A Trilateral in name only
To arrange an interview with an AEI Asia expert, please contact AEI Media Services at mediaservices@aei.org or 202.862.5829.
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