The question before us is straightforward: Is the Paris climate agreement to limit greenhouse gas emissions a good strategy? A strategy, of course, is a set of tools used to achieve some goal. It is not the goal itself. Accordingly, we must ask: What is the goal?
If it is some unspecified reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions intended to moderate future temperature increases, then the Paris “strategy” is preposterous, because the agreement does not and even in principle could not contain a mechanism to enforce the promises offered by the individual governments. Moreover, many of these Intended Nationally Determined Contributions promise greenhouse gas reductions relative to a “business as usual” scenario, that is, relative to a future emissions path unconstrained by any policies at all. Such a commitment can be “achieved” by overestimating future economic growth, and thus emissions, over the commitment period; when growth proves slower than projected, so will emissions. Commitment fulfilled!
Note also that the agreement contains no target for global reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Instead, the agreement simply lumps together the plans submitted by the individual governments. The parties promise – hearts crossed, hands raised, may lightning strike – to take the actions needed to limit warming by 2100 to 2 degrees above (assumed) preindustrial levels. (There also is a secondary 1.5 degree goal, about which more below.) But such actions may or may not (see above) represent actual future emissions reductions. For example, the Chinese commitment is for an emissions peak “around 2030,” after which … what, precisely? And how high will that “peak” be?
You can read the rest of the articles at the US News & World Report. It will be available here on Friday December 25, 2015.
from AEI » Latest Content http://ift.tt/1MlIScg
0 التعليقات:
Post a Comment