This past week, we issued a challenge. We asked some of our scholars to reflect on and list the main events, trends, negotiations, policy goals, etc., that will, could, or should shape 2016.
So what should we mark in red on our calendars? What is at the front of policy and political leaders’ minds this New Year? Read on to be enlightened by Danielle Pletka (Foreign and Defense Policy), Karlyn Bowman and Heather Sims (the Political Corner), and Alan D. Viard (Economics).
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The motto for 2016 may well be plus ça change, plus ça reste la meme chose… And that will go double for foreign policy.
Here are 8 things that should happen, but probably won’t, in 2016.
1. A policy to defeat ISIS. Yeah, no. Amazingly, the president thinks his policy is working despite evidence to the contrary on every single front.
2. A policy for a post-Assad Syria. If it’s one thing the isolationists of every political stripe get right, it’s that you can’t get rid of a dictator without having a plan for what to do afterwards. (P.S.: ideally, that plan isn’t written by Ayatollah Khamenei or Vladimir Putin.)
3. Honest implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. You know, the Iran Deal. Already being violated per the terms laid out by the president, who is apparently really fine with those violations.
4. A policy to push back on the People’s Republic of China. Increasingly aggressive both at home and abroad, Xi Jinping likely feels a sense of impunity in Asia which could lead to almost anything, including the invasion of Taiwan.
5. A policy for Latin America. I’m easy here. We could show some spine on Cuba, where the Castro brothers have used Obama’s embrace to crack down on dissidents; on Venezuela, increasingly at risk of collapse; on Honduras, where spiraling criminality is pushing citizens to seek refuge in the United States… It’s an open field really. Would be good to, you know, do something.
6. A policy for Russia. Oh that silly Putin. Look at him in Ukraine. In Syria. Selling that crazy stuff to Iran. What will he do next?! No really, what will he do next?
7. Move on the Trans-Pacific Partnership. That’s you, Congress. Perhaps this year, Congress won’t just sit there. Any bets? Didn’t think so.
8. Leadership. None in the White House. None on Capitol Hill. Not much from the candidates for president. Look for it in 2017. We hope.
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The key dates for AEI’s Political Corner in 2016 are election-related and front-loaded. Here’s what we’ll be watching and why.
January 1: Early reports from the presidential campaign committees about their fourth quarter 2015 fundraising are beginning to dribble in. Ted Cruz raised nearly $19 million. His average contribution: $67. Since he announced in March, his campaign has received 670,000 donations from over 300,000 donors. Ben Carson also reported a good haul. Will Bernie Sanders raise almost as much as Hillary? Also in January, Super PACs will report their activity for the second half of 2015.
January 4 is Bill Clinton’s first solo trip for Hillary’s 2016 bid (He’s going to New Hampshire). Will he be an asset on the trail?
January 12 is President Obama’s final State of the Union address. This speech will lay out the parts of his legacy he will focus on most in his final year as president. It will also set the stage for any remaining conflicts with Congress, which will bear heavily on Republicans as they try to hold onto their majority in the Senate and keep their losses to a minimum in the House.
January 14 is the next GOP debate, followed quickly by another Democratic one on Sunday, January 17. Will either debate further winnow the field?
February 1: It starts officially with the Iowa caucuses. In 2012, most people went to bed thinking Mitt Romney had won the Iowa caucuses. But when the votes were finally certified, Rick Santorum had. Both parties are working with Microsoft on a new technology that should address past problems with voter reporting. But, yet again, the outcome is all but certain.
In 2008, 57% who attended Iowa’s Democratic caucuses told the entrance pollsters that they were first-time caucus goers. The Obama campaign did a brilliant job of enlarging the electorate that year. Will any candidate do that in 2016?
February 9: The New Hampshire primaries. The threshold for getting delegates in the New Hampshire GOP primary is 10%; in the Democratic primary it is 15%. Today, in the Real Clear Politics average of recent polls in the Granite State, only four GOP candidates are polling at that level or above. Given the state’s moderate orientation, this state should be fertile territory for a John Kasich or Chris Christie. But Donald Trump continues to lead the GOP field there, as Sanders continues to lead the Democratic one.
February late: South Carolina holds its primary on the 20th. This state’s GOP electorate looks more like the nation than Iowa’s or New Hampshire’s. On February 23, Nevada holds its caucuses. Without Mitt Romney in the race this time (he did well among Nevada’s Mormon population), this contest could be pivotal.
March 1: Super Tuesday. The SEC primary. Call it what you will; its significance remains the same. Five hundred and sixty five bound delegates will be awarded this day. The 13 primaries and caucuses that take place on March 1 have different rules and thresholds for allocating their delegates. Watch the big states of Texas (155 delegates) and Georgia (76), but Tennessee (58) could be very important given the influence of its media markets in nearby states, such as Arkansas and Virginia, that will also hold contests on March 1.
March 8: The date on which half of the GOP delegates will have been allocated. In 2008 and 2012, the GOP leader in the delegate count at that point has been able to win the nomination by the time 75% of the delegates are awarded.
March 15: If no Republican candidate has a strong lead at this point, states that award their delegates by a winner-take-all system on March 15 will assume enormous importance. Watch Florida (99) and Ohio (66). Illinois (69) and North Carolina (72), which also hold their contests on Super Tuesday, have a version of winner-take-all allocation.
July 18 and 25: The Democratic Party’s convention begins on July 18 followed by the GOP’s the week of July 25. The mid-summer gatherings are earlier than recent conventions by design to give the parties’ nominees more time to campaign before Election Day.
September 5: The home stretch. For those of us in Washington, campaigns never stop. But most Americans start tuning in to them in earnest after Labor Day. Polls have very little predictive value until about 100 days out from the election. If you thought polls mattered before, they really matter now.
November 8. Election Day. It’s all over. Will Republicans hold the Senate? Will Democrats gain governorships? Will they pick up more than a handful of seats in the House? Will this election be the pollsters’ Waterloo? Join AEI’s Election Watch team for lunch on Thursday, November 10 to understand what happened and why.
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Some things to consider for the economy and the US in 2016.
1. Will the economic expansion continue in 2016?
The severe recession that the United States experienced from December 2007 to June 2009 was followed by an agonizingly slow recovery. But it looks like the economy may have finally turned the corner. The unemployment rate, which peaked at 10.0% in October 2009, has fallen to 5.0%. The economy has added 12.6 million jobs since September 2010, after losing 8.1 million jobs in the 32 preceding months. Will the expansion continue in 2016 or will it stall? What will happen to labor force participation and wages?
2. What will the Fed do in 2016?
After holding interest rates near zero for eight years, the Federal Reserve inched rates up by a quarter of a percentage point on December 16. The Fed has indicated that it may raise rates by approximately another percentage point during 2016, but has emphasized that its actions will be dictated by economic developments. The pace of interest-rate increases will not only affect inflation and the strength of the economic expansion, but will also affect the returns earned by savers and the costs paid by borrowers.
3. Will Congress and the president be able to agree on corporate tax reform in 2016?
There’s broad agreement that the 35% corporate income tax rate should be reduced and that the corporate tax base should be broadened by curtailing deductions and credits. But, the devil is in the details. Which credits and deductions should be curtailed? How should the overseas income of US multinationals be taxed? What changes, if any, should be made to the taxation of partnerships and other non-corporate businesses? Reaching agreement in 2016 would be very difficult, but not impossible.
4. Will the 2016 presidential campaign lay the groundwork for a future value added tax?
Many budget observers believe that closing the long-term fiscal gap will eventually require the adoption of a value added tax (VAT). But the VAT has never been popular in the United States due to concerns about its burden on the poor and its potential ability to fuel increased government spending. Nevertheless, two Republican presidential candidates, Senators Rand Paul and Ted Cruz, are proposing replacing an array of existing taxes with a VAT. If their proposals gain traction, future historians may look back at the 2016 presidential campaign as the point at which the VAT became a respectable policy option.
5. What will happen to Puerto Rico’s debt in 2016?
The Puerto Rican government, which has defaulted on some debts owed by its agencies, continues to struggle to pay its general-obligation debt. Some observers have compared Puerto Rico’s troubles to those of Greece. During 2016, the commonwealth and its creditors will face key decisions on how and whether to restructure its debt. Congress will have to decide what relief, if any, the federal government should offer and whether to adopt legislation allowing Puerto Rico to declare bankruptcy.
6. How will the Supreme Court rule on President Obama’s immigration initiative?
In November 2014, President Obama instituted the Deferred Action for Parents of Americans and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA) program, which offers protection from deportation and access to some government benefits to four million immigrants who are illegally present in the United States. The US Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit recently held that DAPA likely exceeded the administration’s authority under the immigration laws. In January, the Supreme Court will decide whether to hear the administration’s challenge to that ruling. The Court is likely to take the case and to decide whether DAPA is legal.
From all of us at AEI: Happy New Year!
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