Will the Iowa GOP electorate in 2016 look like the 2012 electorate there? Will any of the GOP candidates bring substantial numbers of new voters to the caucuses, as Barack Obama did so successfully to the 2008 Democratic ones? These are important questions as we head into the final stretch.
Here’s one finding that suggests possible problems for Donald Trump, unless he expands the traditional GOP Iowa caucus going electorate. Fifty-two percent of caucus-goers in the Iowa GOP entrance poll in 2012 were college graduates. Yet most polls show that Trump’s support is strongest among those without a college degree. To take just one example, Trump led the pack of Republicans or those who leaned to the GOP with 39 percent support in the December CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll. Twenty-seven percent of his supporters had college degrees compared to 46 percent who did not. Does he have the organization to turn out his strongest supporters? We will know in a few weeks.
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