So, Pyongyang claims that it has successfully conducted a hydrogen bomb test. If that’s confirmed, then North Korea’s nuclear weapons can now be measured in megatons rather than kilotons.
A few thoughts:
- Whether this is true or not, North Korea provokes every time they want concessions and this time around, their saber-rattling can’t be separated from the Iran nuclear deal. As a reward for Iran’s cheating and defiance, President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry have rewarded Tehran with $100 billion in sanctions relief as well as help with advanced nuclear technology. That’s a couple orders of magnitude above what North Korea received two decades ago (from some of the same negotiators).
People take part in a mass rally at Kim Il Sung Square in Pyongyang to mark North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s New Year Address in this photo released by North Korea’s Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on January 5, 2016. REUTERS/KCNA.
- There will be a temptation to respond by sending a carrier strike group or a Marine Expeditionary Unit into the Sea of Japan or other waters around North Korea. That’s all well and good, but remember that — despite the “pivot to Asia” — the US Pacific fleet continues to shrink. There were more ships in the Pacific fleet during the Carter administration than exist in the entire US Navy today.
- The biggest hole in the Iran negotiations was off-shoring. Let’s put aside the fact that the Supreme Leader and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps have refused and continue to refuse inspections at Iranian military sites, and that diplomats are discouraging pushing Tehran on this in order to maintain the charade of negotiation success. Iranian scientists have reportedly been present at every North Korean nuclear test, and North Korean scientists have been spotted at Iranian missile tests. If Iranian scientists wanted to continue their nuclear weapons laboratory work in North Korea, there’s not a darned thing the United States or the United Nations could do about it. It’s almost as if the United States dealt with a burglar by putting a deadbolt on a house, but left the vault in the bank next door wide open.
- What about the China option? After all, China is North Korea’s ally and its main economic partner. In my book, Dancing With the Devil, a history of US negotiations with rogue regimes like North Korea and Iran, I trace how American diplomats have long sought to use China as an intermediary with North Korea, giving China a number of diplomatic concessions to grease the palm. Never has the White House or State Department stepped back, however, and considered the cost of using China. Perhaps the United States is caught in an elaborate game of good cop, bad cop, with Beijing collecting on its client’s bad behavior.
- And let’s not forget the cost of diplomacy. In the twilight years of the George W. Bush administration, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice de-listed North Korea from the State Sponsor of Terrorism list, even though Pyongyang was, according to the Congressional Research Service, in deep with the Tamil Tigers and Hezbollah. Rice succumbed to a common second term pattern and threw a “Hail Mary” pass to change Bush’s foreign policy legacy, but like many desperate last minute moves, hers ended in failure. The stakes are much higher in national security than in the NFL however, and all she accomplished was to allow Pyongyang more money in its pocket in which to pursue its nuclear aims.
So what should the United States do? It’s time to get serious about our navy. For decades, our doctrine was to be able to fight two major wars simultaneously. We can wring our hands about the budgetary decisions which need to be made, but Pyongyang and Tehran will force the decision, not Washington. To continue to support sequestration is to encourage rogues like North Korea and Iran to pursue their aims without consequence. Washington must do what it takes to ensure a carrier strike group is always within range of North Korea, and to make sure that South Korea and Japan have the latest anti-ballistic missile defenses.
What the United States should not do is cave into blackmail. There can be no incentive offered to bring Pyongyang to the table. That won’t bring peace, but will only reward defiance.
It also may be time to encourage Japan, already a nuclear capable power, to take the final step. The legacy of World War II will make this difficult but the world is a different place today. China does not take the United States or our red lines seriously. If their North Korea policy leads to a nuclear Japan on China’s doorstep, Beijing might finally get serious about the consequences of their actions. At the very least, it will add leverage to regional de-nuclearization talks down the line.
While running for president in 2008, Hillary Clinton famously ran a commercial asking who might best respond to the 3 a.m. phone call. After a decade of declining American presence and eviscerated red lines, only one thing is certain: as rogues test the next president, the White House crisis line better be on speed dial.
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