FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: February 25, 2016
CONTACT: mediaservices@aei.org, 202.862.5829
Washington, D.C. (February 25) — A new report, “America’s Electoral Future: How Changing Demographics Could Impact Presidential Elections from 2016 to 2032,″ by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), the Brookings Institution, and the Center for American Progress, examines how demographic shifts by race, age, and generation could affect election outcomes from 2016 to 2032. The authors conclude that while the effect is likely to be significant, neither party can be assured of long-term dominance simply because of shifting demographics.
Using projections from the AEI/Brookings/CAP States of Change project, these findings were produced by conducting a series of simulations using a variety of different scenarios. The six scenarios assume different voter turnout rates and different political support.
In addition to this report, six papers on the policy implications of the demographic changes on family, on the economy and workforce, and on the social contract are also being released. Each policy area has two papers from different political perspectives: Jared Bernstein of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and Henry Olsen of the Ethics & Public Policy Center discuss the significance of the changes on the workforce; Naomi Cahn of the George Washington University Law School, June Carbone of the University of Minnesota Law School, Howard Lavine of the University of Minnesota, and David Blankenhorn of the Institute for American Values discuss the impact of the changes on the family (family structure and educational attainment, for example); and William Galston of the Brookings Institution and Reihan Salam of the National Review Institute examine the effect of the changes on the social contract (for example, the possible conflict of interest over the financing and extent of social programs between an aging white population and a more diverse workforce).
Both the simulations report and policy papers will be presented today during the States of Change conference held at AEI. Livestream of the event can be accessed here.
“In election years, candidates, issues, and the voters’ mood always matter. But demographic change is centrally important, too, and the States of Change project has been examining how it will affect elections going forward and policy choices the nation will have to make,” said Karlyn Bowman, senior fellow and research coordinator at the American Enterprise Institute. “The AEI, Brookings, and CAP collaboration provides an excellent foundation for these discussion.”
“Changing demographics across the 50 states will have a huge impact on the results of the 2016 election and beyond,” said William H. Frey, senior fellow at Brookings Institution and a coauthor of the report. “Unlike in the primaries, both parties will need to come to grips with a more racially diverse nation in order to capture the White House in the general election. These projections will give Republicans and Democrats a valuable tool for assessing the future.”
“Demographics may not be destiny, but they do play a significant role in shaping the future,” said Ruy Teixeira, senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and coauthor of the report. “An older and more racially diverse voter population will reshape the American political landscape and both Democrats and Republicans will need to grapple with that reality.”
For more information about the States of Change project, click here. To speak with one of the experts, please contact Meg Cahill at meg.cahill@aei.org.
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AEI is a nonprofit, nonpartisan public policy research organization that works to expand liberty, increase individual opportunity, and strengthen free enterprise.
The Brookings Institution is a nonprofit organization devoted to independent research and policy solutions. Its mission is to conduct high-quality, independent research and, based on that research, to provide innovative, practical recommendations for policymakers and the public.
The Center for American Progress is a nonpartisan research and educational institute dedicated to promoting a strong, just and free America that ensures opportunity for all. We believe that Americans are bound together by a common commitment to these values and we aspire to ensure that our national policies reflect these values. We work to find progressive and pragmatic solutions to significant domestic and international problems and develop policy proposals that foster a government that is “of the people, by the people, and for the people.”
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