The States of Change: Demographics and Democracy project is a collaboration of AEI, the Brookings Institution, and the Center for American Progress. The project began in 2014 and has been generously funded by the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation. In year one, States of Change examined the changing demography of the nation and projected the racial and ethnic composition of every state to 2060. The detailed findings were discussed at the project’s February 2015 conference.
Access the States of Change project and interactive map
In year two, the project’s leaders commissioned six papers on the policy implications of the demographic changes, two each from different political perspectives on the significance of the changes for the family, for the economy and workforce, and for the social contract. Their discussions include public policy responses to topics such as strong correlations between family structure, educational attainment, and race and possible conflicts of interest between an aging white population and a more diverse workforce over the financing and extent of social programs. Each of the papers is available at the links below.
Two Perspectives on Demographic Change and the Future of the Workforce
These two papers examine the implications of America’s demographic change for the economy and the potential for either political consensus or political conflict to emerge from these challenges. The first paper titled, “Demographic Change and the Future of the Workforce: Challenges and Opportunities,” is authored by Jared Bernstein of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. The second paper titled, “Demographic Change and Political Conflict,” is authored by Henry Olsen of the Ethics & Public Policy Center.
Two Perspectives on Demographic Change and the Future of the Family
These two papers assess current changes in family structure in America based on race and education and examines these changes in light of America’s future demography. While some policy officials propose greater job stability, higher wages, and increased government support for welfare programs and education benefits to offset the decline of the nuclear family, other policy officials propose more holistic efforts that include, but are not limited to, economic security. These two papers contribute to this discussion. The first paper titled, “A New Look at Demographics, Family Stability, and Poverty” is coauthored by Naomi Cahn of the George Washington University Law School, June Carbone of the University of Minnesota Law School, and Howard Lavine of the University of Minnesota. The second paper titled, “Are We Still Married? Family Structure and Family Policy in the Emerging Age of the Unformed Family,” is authored by David Blankenhorn of the Institute for American Values.
Two Perspectives on Demographic Change and the Future of the Social Contract
These two papers examine in detail the implications of changes in America’s demography by race, age, and education for public policy. How will social programs, such as Medicare and Social Security, be funded as America’s population ages and its younger members are increasingly diverse? Will America be able to assimilate its growing immigrant population into mainstream society, or will income inequality and other social inequalities persist and possibly worsen as America’s population becomes more racially and ethnically diverse? These papers delve deeply into the political and policy implications of these questions. The first paper titled, “Demographic Change and the Future of the American Social Compact,” is authored by William Galston of the Brookings Institution. The second paper titled, “Is the Hardening of Ethnoracial Inequalities Inevitable?,” is authored by Reihan Salam of the National Review Institute.
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