The US armed forces stand at a critical crossroads. The military is as busy as ever, and it must simultaneously meet expanded current needs while preparing for an uncertain future. The next president will make choices about the US military that will define American hard power for much of the 21st century.
1.) The Obama administration has realized that the military cannot be asked to “do more with less” forever. As reality sets in, America’s armed forces will simply do “less with less.” In light of this, what missions should the Pentagon prioritize?
The American military is adrift in a stew of unclear strategic guidance and contradictory policies, and is receiving mixed messages about its overarching objectives. All this even as the military struggles to triage a smaller force with older equipment carrying out a hectic pace of operations. The next president therefore must not only rebuild the force, but also offer clarity of purpose pursuant to the restoration of American internationalism and leadership.
This is not a zero-sum proposition; we cannot merely “pivot” while ignoring key regions, nor keep only a portion of the military fully ready. America’s armed forces must rebuild our eroding conventional deterrence and increase the forward presence of our forces as a check on instability.
Pursuant to these goals, the force should prioritize missions to:
- Protect our citizens and homeland;
- Restore a favorable environment for American interests across Europe, Asia, and the Middle East;
- Provide uninterrupted access for global commerce and innovation on the high seas, in the air, and throughout space and cyberspace;
- Promote American values and enforceable rules for operating in the international system.
2.) Recent budget cuts hit a military already downsizing after the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Why is this decrease in defense spending uniquely harmful to the military?
The Budget Control Act and additional spending restraints by the Obama administration cut into a force still engaged in hostilities, whereas earlier drawdowns occurred after conflicts had mostly ended. The military has lost more than one trillion dollars of funding over the past few years. Because the political and budgetary environments are so unstable, the Pentagon has been unable to adequately plan its force structure and investments.
Further, this latest budget squeeze followed a “hollow buildup.” During the wars, increased defense spending was used mostly on temporary personnel increases and consumables like ammunition and fuel. Little of that money was invested in the long-term health of the military. Worse yet, this directly followed the “peace dividend” drawdown of the 1990s. America’s military has not seen a true buildup since the Reagan years.
The cumulative effects of failing to modernize the force means the military of 2015 is still living in an era of the 1986 movie, “Top Gun.” All four military services mainly use equipment designed and purchased in the early 1980s. Our investment in next-generation capabilities has since stalled, but the rest of the world is catching up quickly — especially China, Russia, and Iran. The longer modernization is deferred, the more costly and time-consuming it will be to undertake.
Each year, we spend more money for a smaller and older force — just as one would on an old car. Continued inaction is simply not an option, both in terms of budgetary inefficiencies borne by the taxpayer and effectiveness of our future armed forces.
3.) It seems like there are so many threats, but little that America can do about them. What worries you the most?
Recently, high-ranking American officials have offered strikingly divergent assessments of the threat environment confronting the nation. Several senior military officers have said Russia, China, Iran, and Islamic State (or ISIS) are the top threats. Secretary of State John Kerry reversed the order, calling “the rapid growth of extremist groups” like ISIS our main worries. The nation’s top intelligence officer has said cyber threats to national and economic security are #1.
Though the United States does not face a clear, singular threat like the Soviet Union in the Cold War, today’s challenges are multiplying and transforming faster and faster. No single root cause can explain the world’s decline into chaos any more than a single solution can restore order.
What we do know is that the next president will need a full and robustly-equipped toolbox to confront any one of these challenges in addition to unforeseen threats. Rebuilding the tools of national power, including our military strength, is one sure way to stem the tide of instability and hedge against a diverse set of current and future problems.
4.) The defense budget is not immune to waste, and the Pentagon is not auditable. What reforms are needed to ensure smarter efficiency by the nation’s largest bureaucracy?
Even as the active duty force has shrunk 4% since 9/11, the civilians who support them have grown by 16%. The Defense Department estimates that it maintains 20 to 25% more basing than it needs, but Congress refuses to allow any closures and associated civilian workforce reductions attached to them. Additionally, Washington has overreformed and regulated weapons acquisitions, with project managers now spending most of their time checking boxes and filling out paperwork.
All the while, the $200 billion defense contractor workforce providing services runs wild with no oversight. A company with this management approach would very quickly be out of business, but such accountability is nowhere to be found at the Pentagon.
Presidential leadership — combined with a willingness to work with Congress — will be necessary to attack these entrenched bureaucratic and cultural inadequacies and restore investment in our declining combat power.
5.) How should we recruit and retain the best and brightest in our professional military?
Leaders have rightfully lauded the world-class advantages of our uniquely talented, trained, and educated professional fighting forces. Yet 15 years of war combined with budget cuts have created worrying cracks in the health of the all-volunteer force. Military leaders increasingly warn of emerging problems in readiness, morale, and retention. As a result of spending reductions that broke our promise to support those in uniform, pilots with fewer flying hours and soldiers with no large-unit training time are exiting service. They have volunteered to defend America, but Washington has failed to give them all the tools necessary to do so.
Clarity of purpose and a commitment by the next president to reinvest in our military across balanced priorities is the first step in reversing these trends. Politicians must stop using the defense budget as hostage to larger debates about the size and scope of government. That will finally give the armed forces simple budget predictability, which will go a long way toward improving morale.
We also must update the military’s human resources system by removing legislative roadblocks to give America’s youth more of what they and their families value in employment and benefits. A more flexible recruiting process will be required to attract and retain the talent needed for cyber jobs, high-tech maintenance, and trained engineers.
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