The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season predicts a “45 percent chance of above-normal activity,” with up to four storms expected to be a Category 3 or higher.
The forecast, issued Thursday, predicts 11 to 17 named storms, with as many as nine becoming hurricanes. There were 15 named storms and seven hurricanes during last year’s season. Four hurricanes were a Category 3 or higher.
The forecast takes into account several factors, including “our expectation of a weak or non-existent El Ni?o” and “near or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea,” said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Dick Gremillion, Calcasieu Parish Office of Emergency Preparedness director, said that while predictions aren’t always accurate, he is worried about forecasters raising the number of Category 3 hurricanes.
“They essentially doubled the number of Category 3 storms from one to two to two to four,” he said. “That is a cause for concern.”
Gremillion said residents should be prepared no matter what the forecasters say. Hurricane season starts June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
“The only hurricane that makes any difference to us is one that might hit us,” he said.
Gremillion said Southwest Louisiana has been spared by hurricanes since Ike’s landfall in 2008. But he said the growing population has brought in people who may not have experienced a major hurricane.
“We hope people read the available information on hurricanes and understand it when the time comes,” Gremillion said.
He said hurricanes that are weaker than a Category 3, like Ike and Sandy, can still cause major damage. “Don’t be fooled by the major hurricane title,” he said. “There’s no ‘light hurricanes.’ ”
Gremillion said residents have easier access through social media and other outlets to get updated information after a storm hits.
NOAA officials will release an updated hurricane forecast in early August.
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Online: www.hurricanes.gov.
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