Communities across south Louisiana still recovering from recent heavy rains could be in for another deluge in the coming week. Invest 99-L, a tropical system spinning in the Atlantic, is expected to make its way into the Gulf of Mexico over the next few days, bringing with it the possibility of flood-inducing rainfall in an already inundated part of the state.
For now, the system is mostly a cluster of clouds and thunderstorms, according to meteorologists. Forecast models have yet to provide a clear picture for what the system could become and where it would make landfall.
According to the Calcasieu Parish Office of Emergency Preparedness, the system has a 20 percent chance of developing into a tropical cyclone through the weekend, but a 60 percent chance of development when it reaches the Gulf.
Meteorologist Donald Jones of the National Weather Service said the Lake Charles area, based on the current information about the system, is expected to be out of reach of any significant rainfall.
“For our areas, it is very unlikely that it’s going to make it this far west as a significant system,” Jones said. “If it were to get stronger, the further east it’s going to end up going.”
Jones said storms get taller as they get stronger and that changes in wind speed and direction accompany that expansion. “The taller storm will be steered by different wind currents than a weak storm,” he said. “Those currents would turn it more north more quickly than a weak storm.”
Jones said it is too early to make exact predictions about the system’s development and direction. But he said that if it remains a weak system, it would be a “prolific rainmaker.”
A second disturbance in the north-central part of the Gulf is also being tracked by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The National Hurricane Center said “little to no development” is expected from the system before it reaches the Texas coast over the weekend.
According to a forecaster with the center, the system only has a 10 percent chance of developing into a more significant weather event within the next 48 hours.
Jones said the severe weather activity as of late, while seemingly relentless, is not unfamiliar for this time of year. The recent storm system that devastated parts of Southeast Louisiana, he said, was unique in its development.
“The system that recently passed through the area, had that been over water, it would have been classified as a tropical system,” Jones said. “It was very tropical in its characteristics in that it was producing such heavy rainfall.”
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